Earthquake Prediction
Next
California Major Earthquake

by Global Weather Oscillations Inc

Prediction Created - April 2011          Public Release - April 23, 2012
 
 
High Risk Major Earthquake   March to June 2014
5.1 occured "Brea" near Los Angeles and 6.8 near Eureka

GWO   Earthquake   Project

 

Prediction Summary:   High risk for a major California earthquake from December 2013 into March 2014, with a predicted risk of (75%) for a major California earthquake continuing until July 2014.


1. Introduction


  Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), was formed with the specific understanding that Earth has natural rhythms

  and strong cyclical natural forces. These forces control much of the global cooling and global warming cycles of

  climate change, carbon dioxide cycles, annual variations in hurricane activity and seasonal hurricane paths, cyclical 

  occurrences of the El Nino and La Nina, cyclical historical flood such as the 2011 Mississippi River flood, and

  earthquakes. 



  With over 20 years of ongoing research, GWO has incorporated the disciplines of Meteorology,
  Oceanography, Climatology, Geology, Seismology, Astronomy and Astrophysics into developmental phases for

  researching and instituting prediction models for the various aspects of the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.
  One of the most significant discoveries by GWO is the strong link found between oscillation pulses of
  external forcing, designated by GWO as the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)".  The PFM is the
  link between the internal and external rhythm of the earth, which likely causes cyclical regional major
  earthquakes and climate oscillations.

  The PFM is essentially cyclical oscillations of the "Lunisolar Precession" that cause changes
  within the Earth-Sun gravity field.  This is the magnetic field originating from the ratio between
  electrons to its nucleus mass diameters. The Earth-Sun Lunisolar gravity field is very strong, with
  variations in the pulses of up to 47%.  If it was not for these strong gravitational tidal forces, the earth
  would spin out of control (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles). It is these forces that tend
  to keep earth's orbit and rhythm in balance and create internal and external cycles. 



  Recognizing that pulses and oscillations of the external mechanism of the PFM cause cyclical stress
  on the internal structure beneath the surface of earth,  GWO has developed a prediction model correlating
  the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)" to recurring major earthquake cycles within geographic region
  is around the world, including California.  Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that
  cause earthquakes, and why they can be predicted by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.



  More information is available in the GWO eBook "Natural Climate Pulse"  "free download"  click here





2. Major Earthquake Prediction - California Region


    Prediction Summary - In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced

    increased earthquake activity.  The window is centered on the period December 2013 to March 2014.
    There is an overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk
    for a major (7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake.
    Note that the risk for a major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk.  The highest predicted risk of
    (75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the greatest and most likely risk period

    being December 2013 into March 2014.

    *Note:  Earthquakes of Magnitude (M) 7.0 to 7.9 are designated as “Major”  on the Moment Magnitude Scale - MMS

      (MMS scale replaced the Richter Scale in the 2002). 

 

        Earthquakes of Magnitude 8.0 to 9.9 are designated as “Great” on the MMS Scale (formarly the Richter Scale).          

 

                                 Date                            Magnitude Risk

                     July 2011 - June 2012       M 7.0 - 8.0 =   7 %  risk
                                                                 M 7.0 - 7.4 =   5 %  risk
                                                                 M 7.5 - 8.0 =   2 %  risk

                   

                    July 2012 - June 2013        M 7.0 - 8.0 = 30 %  risk
                                                                 M 7.0 - 7.4 = 20 %  risk
                                                                 M 7.5 - 8.0 = 10 %  risk



                   July 2013 - June 2014        M 7.0 - 8.0 =  75 % risk  (highest risk December - March)

                                                                M 7.0 - 7.4 =  35 % risk  (highest risk December - March)
                                                                M 7.5 - 8.0 =  40 % risk  (highest risk December - March)



                   July 2014 - June 2015        M 7.0 - 8.0 = 20 %  risk

                                                                M 7.0 - 7.4 = 10 %  risk
                                                                M 7.5 - 8.0 = 10 %  risk

                   July 2015 - June 2016        M 7.0 - 8.0 =   7 % risk
                                                                M 7.0 - 7.4 =   5 % risk
                                                                M 7.5 - 8.0 =   2 % risk



3. Frequency Risk - California 6.4 to 7.9  Magnitude Earthquake



  Based on 112 years of record (1900-2011) for strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.4 to 6.9, 

  California experienced 11 strong earthquakes since the year 1900, giving an expected return risk of 1 strong
  earthquake every 10 years.  When factoring in major earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 or greater, there
  was a total of 24 (6.4 to 7.9) strong or major earthquakes in this region.  This is a very high frequency
  region with an average of 1 strong 6.4 or greater earthquake expected with a periodicity of about one
  occurrence every 5 years.   

                                         

Magnitude Return Risks 112 year history

                                           Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 8.0 earthquake    =   20.2 % 1 every 5 years
                                           Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake    =  10.2 % 1 every 10 years
                                           Average annual risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake    =   11.7 % 1 every 10 years
                                           Average annual risk for a 7.5 to 8.0 earthquake    =     1.5 % 1 every 70 years
  
  Of greater significance than the 6.4 to 6.9 earthquakes, is major earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or
  greater.  During the 112 year period since 1900, 13 major earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9 have
  occurred, giving an expected return risk of 1 every 9 years. However, most of the earthquakes
  were between 7.0 to 7.4 magnitude with a return risk of 1 every 10 years.  But only 1 earthquake
  greater than 7.4 magnitude occurred since 1900, the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 with a
  magnitude of 7.8.  This was 106 years ago, and there is a 70 year return risk frequency.
  
  The most devastating California earthquakes are traditionally those greater than 7.4 magnitude.
  Looking at records dating back an additional 100 years to the year 1800 (total of 212 years), a 7.8
  occurred in 1892, 7.9 in 1857 and the great 7.8 magnitude San Francisco earthquake in 1906. Taking
  these into account, a total of 3 severe major earthquakes have occurred in the past 212 years.  This gives
  a periodicity risk for an approximate 7.8 major earthquake of 1 every 70 years (212 year record), which
  is only a 1.5% annual risk.

                                                     

                     Figure 1 - Depicts the GWO annual prediction risk in percent for an earthquake of

                      magnitude 6.4 or greater for each year from 2011 into 2017.  Notice the risk for a

                      6.4 to 8 earthquake is only 10% in 2011 and 2012 (longterm mean is 10%).  The GWO

                      prediction risk rises sharply to a 40% risk in mid 2012 and to a 90% risk during the period

                      from  July 2013 to July 2014.





4. GWO Prediction - 6.4 to 7.9 Magnitude California Earthquake
    90 Percent Risk from Mid 2013 to Early 2014


  The Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) earthquake model tracks analog years associated with the

  periodicity and strength of the PFM's (Primary Forcing Mechanism) cycles to earthquake magnitude
  strengths.  Current tracking of PFM analog years indicates that California is entering an active cycle for the
  occurrence, or occurrences of strong to major earthquakes.



  The GWO model forecast pinpoints the expected year, and the most likely season of the year it will occur.

  The model has correlated approximately 90 percent with the major California earthquakes since the year 1899.
  The expected performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.

 

  California normally has about a 20% annual risk for an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 8.0 magnitude,
  and a 10% annual risk for a magnitude of 7 to 8. Looking at Figure 1 below,  the GWO Risk Prediction for a
  strong to major earthquake was only 10% during the period from 2011 into 2012 (forecast prepared in 2011). 
  The GWO Prediction Risk then increases to 40% (well above the annual 10% risk) during the period from
  July 2012 to July 2013, and to 90% for the period July 2013 to July 2014 (see table 1).  The GWO
  Earthquake Model predicts the greatest risk for a major earthquake during the period from December 2013
  into March 2014.









































                             

​                        Figure 2 - Shows the GWO model forecast for the overall earthquake risk in red. 

                        Notice from July 2013 to July 2014 the risk for a major California earthquake

                        increases to 75%.


5. GWO Prediction for a Major 7.0 to 7.9 California Earthquake


                                    7.0 to 8.0  Magnitude 75 Percent Risk from Mid 2013 to Early 2014

                                    7.0 to 7.4  Magnitude 35% Risk
                                    7.5 to 8.0  Magnitude 40% Risk



  Earthquakes usually come in differing frequency patterns, thus several strong earthquakes can occur
  within just a few years of each other, or none during a 10-year period.  Major earthquakes of 7.5 to
  7.9 have even a greater variation in periodicity, with 3 major severe earthquakes within 49 years of each
  other in 1857, 1892 and 1906, but none since 1906.

  Of special note; all of the 3 severe 7.8 and 7.9 major earthquakes since the year 1800 occurred within
  49 years of each other in 1857, 1892 and 1906.  These 3 major earthquakes occurred during an increased
  GWO PFM periodicity cycle, and this region is now entering another increased PFM periodicity cycle.
 
  Figure 2 shows the overall Predicted Risk for a magnitude 7 to 8 California earthquake.  There is an
  overall 75% risk for a major earthquake during the forecast period from July 2013 to July 2014,  with
  a 35% risk for a 7 to 7.4 earthquake.  Of special note, is the high 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8.0 magnitude
  earthquake during the period Mid 2013 to Early 2014.







































             

 

 

             

 

 

            

 

              Figure 3 - Column 1 (white bar) shows the forecast for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake.  Column 2

              (yellow bar) risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake, and column 3 (red bar) s the risk forecast for a

              major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 to 8.0.  Notice the risk for a major or severe

              earthquake is very high from mid 2013 to mid 2014 (35% and 40%).



  

  The graph in Figure 3 shows GWO's prediction for three earthquake magnitude categories.  Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9

  (white bar), magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 (yellow bar), and the severe magnitude  7.5 to 8.0 (red bar).



  During the period from July 2012 to 2013 the GWO risk prediction for a strong magnitude 6.5 to 6.9
  increase to a 35%,, with the risk for a major 7 to 7.4 earthquake increasing to 23% and the risk for a
  severe 7.5 to 8 earthquake remaining relatively low at 10%.  The overall risk for a strong to major earthquake is 40%

  during this period.



  For the forecast period from July 2013 to July 2014,  the risk for a strong or major earthquake increases
  from 40% to 90% (see figure 1).  Risk for a strong earthquake (6.5 to 6.9) is predicted to lower to 25%
  during this period, while the risk for a major 7 to 7.4 magnitude increases to 35%,  and the risk
  for a severe 7.5 to 8 earthquake increases to to 40%.  From July 2013 to July 2014, there is an overall
  75% risk for a major California earthquake (see figure 2).





6. Summary



​  Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), was formed in 1992 with the specific understanding that Earth has a natural

  rhythm.  One of the most significant discoveries by GWO is the strong link found between oscillation pulses of  

  external forcing designated by GWO as the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)", to earthquak cycles. This natural

  forcing likely regulates much of the the internal and external rhythm of the earth, with this rhythm and PFM pulses

  likely causing cyclical regional major earthquakes.

  The PFM is essentially cyclical oscillations of the "Lunisolar Precession", with these oscillations causing  changes

  within the Earth-Sun gravity field.  This is the magnetic field originating from the ratio between  electrons to its

  nucleus mass diameters. The Earth-Sun Lunisolar gravity field is so strong with variation pulses  of up to 47%, and if it

  was not for these strong gravitational tidal forces, the earth would spin out of control. It is these forces that tend to

  keep earth's orbit and rhythm in balance and create internal and external cycles. 



  In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced increased earthquake activity.​ There is an

  overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk for a major

  (7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake.  Note that the risk for a

  major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk. 



  The highest predicted risk of (75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the
  greatest and most likely risk period being December 2013 into March 2014.

Appendix

                                                       Table 1

The forecast pinpoints the expected year and the most likely season of the year it will occur.  The GWO model
correlated approximately 90 percent with major California earthquakes since the year 1899. 

The expected performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.

                     Probabilities are assigned to the likelihood of the magnitude quake expected
                              90 percent overall probability of an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 8.0.
                              60 percent  for a magnitude 7 to 8.0 magnitude.
                              50 percent  for a magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake. 

                                                       July 2010  to  June 2011
                                                        Magnitude                       Risk in Percent
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                = 10 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                =  2  %  risk

    

                                                        July 2011 to June 2012
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                 = 10 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                 =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                 =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                 =  2  %  risk
    
                                                       July 2012 to June 2013
                                              Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                  = 40 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 7.0 to 8.0                  = 30 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                  = 35 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                  = 20 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                  = 10 %  risk
     
                                                      July 2013 to June 2014
                                              Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                   = 90 %  risk   December 2013 to March 2014
                                              Magnitude 7.0 to 8.0                   = 75 %  risk   December 2013 to March 2014

                                              Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                      = 30 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                      = 35 %  risk
                                              Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                      = 40 %  risk
      
                                                       July 2014 to June 2015
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                    = 40 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                    = 35 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                    = 10 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                    = 10 %  risk
      
                                                       July 2015 to June 2016
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                     = 10 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                     =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                     =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                     =  2  %  risk
      
                                                      July 2018 to June 2017
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                      = 10 %  risk
                                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                      =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                      =  5  %  risk
                                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                      =  2  %  risk

 

GWO has a Near 90% Accuracy Predicting  Actove Hurricane Zones Past 8-Years
         Predicted  1 to 3 Years in Advance

      

Correctly Predicted 1 to 3 Years in Advance

       2008  Hurricane Ike  -  Upper Gulf States
2009  El Nino - Quiet Hurricane Year
     2011  the Great Mississippi River Flood
               2011  Hurricane Irene - Northeastern States
         2012  Hurricane Issac - upper Gulf States
                 2012  Hurricane Sandy - Northeastern States​
 

 

eBook  "Natural Climate Pulse" released January 20, 2012
Free download  click here 
                  

Disclaimer for Earthquake Risk Probabilities for California.

THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.

IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.

OFFICIAL SOURCES (USGS United States Gelological Survey) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES.