Regional Earthquake Predictions

    

*Note:   Public Service - California Prediction -  Released April 24, 2012
  
                     Next Major California Earthquake  click here 
   
         GWO eBook Natural Climate Pulse "free download"  click here.

GWO EarthQuake Project

 

Introduction

 

Earth is very complex. On the surface there is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the Lunisolar Precession.  The gravitation oscillations cause great stress and tidal fluctuations on the earth's atmosphere and oceans on the surface of the earth, and fluctuations in the geomagnetic field have influence on the internal rhythm of the earth beneath our feet.  Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that cause earthquakes, and why they can be predicted by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

 

Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  One such rhythm of the planet, that which most of us are not aware of, but do occasionally feel or see, is the rhythm of earthquakes.  Hundreds of earthquakes occur daily around the world, and thousands during the course of a year.  Only a small fraction of these occurrences are major earthquakes which can cause severe damage in a region.

 

Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), with nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather, climate and geologic seismic data to develop techniques for climate prediction and occurrences of major earthquakes.  The most significant discovery by GWO indicates that oscillations of external forcing mechanisms are highly linked to the internal rhythm of the earth, and to cycles in the rhythm which caused regional major earthquakes.

 

Recognizing the oscillations of external mechanisms which cause cyclical stress and influcence on the earth's atmosphere, oceans and internal structure beneath the surface of earth, GWO has developed a model that can correlate what GWO calls the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)" to recurring major earthquake cycles within a geographic region, such as California and other regions around the world.

 

 

    1.  GWO has recently completed a model forecast for the next (click here for California earthquake forecast)

          of 6.4 or greater magnatude.

   2.  The forecast pinpoints the expected year and the most likely season of the year it will occur.  The GWO model

         correlated approximately 90 percent with major California earthquakes since the year 1899.  The expected

         performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.

 

   3.  Probabilities will be assigned to the likelihood of the magnitude quake expected.

        For example;   90 percent overall probability of an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 7.8.  A risk probability of 60

        percent for a magnitude 7 to 7.8 magnitude.  A risk probability of 50 percent for a magnitude 6.4 to 6.9

        earthquake.

 

  4.  The probability forecasts and ranges will differ from region to region around the world. The following is

       a "Sample" forecast depicting type of forecasts GWO clients would receive.

 

Availability of Regional Earthquake Forecasts by GWO

 

   1.  GWO regional earthquake forecasts are formulated as a planning tool for insurance companies, Reinsurance

        companies, state governments and institutions or companies requiring earthquake planning.

 

   2.  California is the initial region available to our clients, other regions will be formulated on a request basis by

        our clients.  (click here for California earthquake forecast released April 2012)

   3.  Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that cause earthquakes, and why they can be predicted

        by  Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

 

Sample Predictions Below- click here for actual California Prediction
Region 3
GWO Risk Probability Predictions for Major Earthquakes
6.4 Magnitude and Greater

 

This is a real forecast, dates have been changed

 

GWO Predicted Earthquake Risk
Years 2021 to 2027

 

Historical Frequency

Based on 111 years of record (1900-2010) for strong earthquake magnitudes of 6.4 to 6.9 and major quakes of  7 or greater, there were 24 earthquake years in this region.  This is a very high risk frequency in which an average of 1 strong to major earthquake can be expected every 5 years. 

Examination of strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.4 to 6.9, showed 11 occurrence years during the 111 year, giving an expected return risk of 1 strong quake year every 10 years.  Of greater significance: 13 major earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 or greater occurred during the period, giving an expected return risk of 1 every 12 years. There was only 1 quake greater than 7.4.  This occurred in 1906 with a magnitude of 7.8.  Going back an additional 100 years to the year 1800 (total of 211 years), a 7.8 occurred in 1892,  and a 7.9 in 1857.

Taking these into account, 3 major earthquakes have occured in the past 211 years.  This gives a periodicity risk for an approximate 7.8 major earthquake of  1 every 70 years (211 year record).

Of special note, the 3 major earthquakes occured within 39 years of each other (1857, 1892 and 1906) during an increased PFM periodocity cycle.

 

A total of 24 strong earthquake years during the 111 year period.

 

Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 8 earthquake        = 20.2 %   (110 year history)

Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake    = 10.2 %   (110 year history)

Average annual risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake    = 11.7 %   (110 year history)

Average risk for a 7.5 to 8.0                                         =   1.5 %   (210 year history)

     

GWO Model Predictions

 

 

 

 

 

​                      Figure 1. Shows a typical forecast for a region. The GWO risk forecast for region 3 is for the

                         period 2021 through 2027. The graph depicts the GWO annual prediction risk in percent for

                         an earthquake of magnitude 6.4 or greater in Region.  Notice the risk for a strong earthquake

                         is only 10% in 2021 and 2022 (long term mean is 10%), then rises sharply to a 40% risk in 2023

                         and 90% in 2024.

                              Figure 2 shows the GWO model forecast for specific magnitude ranges.  Column 1

                             (white bar) shows the forecast for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake. In column 2 risk the risk in

                             percent for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake, and column 3 shows the risk forecast for a major

                             earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 to 8.0.  In the year 2024 the risk for a major

                             earthquake near 8.0  is actually higher than a strong 7 to 7.4 quake.

                        Prediction                               Magnitude                                     Risk in Percent

                           Year

 

                           2021                              Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                10 %   risk

                           2021                              Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                  5  %  risk

                           2021                              Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                  5  %  risk

                           2021                              Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                  2  %  risk

 

                           2022                              Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                 10 %  risk

                           2022                              Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                  5  %  risk

                           2022                              Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                  5  %  risk

                           2022                              Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                  2  %  risk

 

                          2023                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                 40 %  risk

                          2023                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                 35 %  risk

                          2023                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                 20 %  risk

                          2023                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                 10 %  risk

 

                          2024                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                 90 %  risk

                          2024                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                 30 %  risk

                          2024                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                 35 %  risk

                          2024                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                 40 %  risk

 

                          2025                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                 40 %  risk

                          2025                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                 35 %  risk

                          2025                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                 10 %  risk

                          2025                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                 10 %  risk

 

                          2026                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                 10 %  risk

                     2026                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                  5  %  risk

                          2026                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                  5  %  risk
                          2026                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                  2  %  risk

   

                          2027                               Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0                                  10 % risk
                          2027                               Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9                                   5 %  risk
                          2027                               Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4                                   5 %  risk
                          2027                               Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0                                   2 %  risk

 

 

Summary

 

Expectations from the GWO model predictions is for 1 or 2 earthquakes years with a magnitude of 6.4 or greater. There is a moderate risk for a strong 7 to 7.4 quake, and an increasing moderate risk for a major 7.8 or greater quake.  Note that the risk for a major quake is very much above the long-term average risk. Most likely year is 2024, and most likely time of year will be December 2013 into February 2024.

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