El Nino - Warm Cycle - Typical Precipitation / Temperature December through March
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La Niña - El Niño Forecasts3 month forecast - prepared by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Updated Februay 7, 2012
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Background
The La Niña which in Spanish means "the girl" is the opposite or counterpart of the El Niño which means "little boy" and refers to "Christ Child". The La Niña is characterized by strong cooling of the ocean waters in the central Pacific Ocean. This cooling alters the formation of regional storms, atmospheric circulation and atmospheric water vapor around the world. The El Niño which is the opposite of the La Niña is characterized by strong warming of the central South Pacific Ocean waters, with this warming causing changes in the atmospheric circulation in this area. The changes are so dramatic, it causes regional changes in atmospheric circulation and storm development around the globe. When it comes to Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes, the La Niña and the neutral stage enhances the hurricane season with favorable upper level atmospheric winds. When an El Niño forms, the general atmospheric circulation becomes less favorable for tropical storms as winds at high altitude become strong westerly instead of a more easterly light circulation. This causes shear in the atmosphere, which is basically lower level easterly winds being sheared by strong upper level westerly winds. Thus when and El Niño occurs, shearing inhibits the formation of tropical cyclones such as hurricanes and tropical storms.
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years in the tropical South Pacific Ocean, and often in December near Christmas, but not always (such as in 2008-09. It is a pool of very warm ocean water that suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns .
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009, and disrupt the 2009 hurricane season. The El Niño caused strong high level changes in the atmosphere which essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
Mr. Dilley and GWO uses a recurring gravitational cycle of the moon called the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" for these predictions. The PFM is a sub cycle of the Lunisolar Precession and acts like a magnet pulling and displacing the South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the Western Pacific near Australia. Then as the PFM gravitational cycle pulls the tropical high pressure system from its normal location, the easterly trade winds suddenly shift direction to westerly.
This shift allows the very warm pool of water near Australia to move east toward South America as an El Niño. As it moves east it disrupts normal atmospheric weather patterns around the world, causing some areas to have stronger than normal storms, and some areas less stormy weather. It also causes changes in ocean currents and temperatures, thus disrupting commercial fishing.
Forecast - by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
La Niña Conditions weakening February though March 2012
GWO 3 Month ForecastFigure 1 shows the Central Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (solid blue line) since 2004, and the GWO Primary Forcing Mechanism PFM cycle (dashed red). The peaks in both the water temperatures and the PFM cycle indicate an El Niño in progress. Coldest temperatures indicate a La Nina, such as in 2008 and 2010 into early 2012.
Notice the sharp decline in the PFM cycle beginning in March 2010. As forecast by GWO in February 2010, the Central Tropical South Pacific ocean waters responded to the diminishing PFM with cooling of the ocean from May through July. A strong La Niña occurred in 2010 through March 2011. Ocean temperatures rose in April through May 2011 in conjunction with the rise in the dotted PFM cycle. GWO then forecast SSTs to lower with the neutral conditions again entering La Nina conditions from August into January 2012. As indicated by the dashed red PFM line, temperatures fell in August in response to the PFM, and are now reading to beginning warming.
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Forecast El Niño - La Niña
The 3-month GWO-PFM forecast issued in July indicated the South Pacific ocean waters would cool again in August and September, with La Nina conditions strengthening.
The GWO forecast calls for La Nina conditons to weaken beginning in February. The La Nina will continue to weaken in March and April in response to warming of the tropical South Pacific ocean waters. Figure 1 shows the dashed red line (PFM Forecast) reaching its coldes point in January 2012.
The technology used in forecasting the upcoming El Niño is the same used for predicting the natural cycles of global warming and cooling. PFM gravitational cycles pull the atmosphere’s high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 5 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions.
These cycles correspond nearly 100 percent with the prior 24 moderate El Niño occurrences since 1914, and with global warming cycles that recur approximate every 230 years, and mega global warming cycles that occur every 116,000 years. Additional information on the El Niño and the peer reviewed computer e-Book "Global Warming - Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" is available as a free download at ht
tp://www.globalweathercycles.com.
PFM El Niño forecasts are available on request for 1 to 10 years in advance. Prepare now for the next strong El Niño
Typical El Nino and La Nina Conditions
La Nina - Cold Cycle - Typical Precipitation / Temperature December through FebruaryLa Nina - Cold Cycle - Typical Precipitation / Temperature June through AugustDuring La Niña episodes rainfall is enhanced across the western equatorial Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines and is nearly absent across the eastern equatorial Pacific. Elsewhere, wetter than normal conditions tend to be observed during December-February (DJF) over northern South America and southern Africa, and during June-August (JJA) over southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are generally observed along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa during DJF, and over southern Brazil and central Argentina during JJA.
La Niña episodes also contribute to large-scale temperature departures throughout the world, with most of the affected regions experiencing abnormally cool conditions. Some of the most prominent temperature departures include: 1) below-normal temperatures during December-February over southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, and southeastern Brazil; 2) cooler than normal conditions during June-August across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast of South America, across the Gulf of Guinea region, and across northern South America and portions of central America; and 3) warmer than normal conditions during December-February along the Gulf coast of the United States (courtesy NOAA CPC).
El Nino - Warm Cycle - Typical Precipitation / Temperature
December through February
El Nino - Warm Cycle - Typical Precipitation / Temperature June through AugustIn the Tropics, El Niño episodes are associated with increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific and with drier than normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Elsewhere, wetter than normal conditions tend to be observed 1) during December-February (DJF) along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, southern Brazil, central Argentina, and equatorial eastern Africa, and 2) during June-August (JJA) in the intermountain regions of the United States and over central Chile. Drier than normal conditions generally observed over northern South America, Central America and southern Africa during DJF, and over eastern Australia during JJA. El Niño episodes also contribute to large-scale temperature departures throughout the world, with most of the affected regions experiencing abnormally warm conditions during December-February. Some of the most prominent temperature departures include: 1) warmer than normal conditions during December-February across southeastern Asia, southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, southeastern Brazil and southeastern Australia; 2) warmer than normal conditions during June-August along the west coast of South America and across southeastern Brazil; and 3) cooler than normal conditions during December-February along the Gulf coast of the United States (courtesy NOAA CPC).
Below are depictions of normal conditions associated with an El Nino, or La Nina for North America. Scan down to view Global Graphics and discussions courtesy NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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