La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
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Predictions 2 Years into the Future
Most Accurate Predictions Two Years into the Future
2-Year Prediction
October 2023 into October 2025
United States and North America - Alaska - Canada - Greenland
British Isles - Europe - Southern Hemisphere including Indonesia, Australia
Acquire 2-Year El Niño and Global Predictions: click here
Predictions Include:
1. 2- Years into the Future
2. Dominant weather features for the above regions
3. El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Condition predictions
4. Climatological features for the event predicted
5. Typical Associated Weather Anomalies
Dramatic Weather and Climate Changes
First El Nino to Form off of Peru Since Prior to 1980
United States - Europe: in-depth Winter Predictions more info...
(snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)
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ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillations)
1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 25 September 2023
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks the area of much warmer than normal Tropical Equatorial Pacific surface water (red in top panel) has remained very warm and has not expanded in area. This area of very warm surface water in the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific is due to the strong upwelling of very warm subsurface water.
The much warmer than normal surface water will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer.
This is the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981. Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.
Expect ENSO El Niño conditions becoming stronger into the northern hemisphere winter - southern hemisphere summer.
GWO's 2-Year Prediction into October 2025 purhcase here
b. NOAA - ENSO (El Niño - La Niña) Prediction - updated 20 September 2023
El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are observed.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño.
El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than a 95% chance through January-March 2024)
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 20 Sept. 2023
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
El Niño events typically develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
During the period from 01 August (top panel) to 20 September 2023 (bottom panel) - it can seen that the much warmer than normal subsurface water (red) has expanded in area and is upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Much warmer water (orange) was also upwelling to the surface across the West Central Equitorial Pacific.
A seen in the bottom panel - the subsurface water is now moderating in the Western Portion of the Equatorial Pacific - and even a patch of colder than normal (blue) is beginning to develop. This signifies that the El Niño is now likely at its strongest maturity - but will continue well into the northern hemisphere winter.
Find Out When the next El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
(where El Nino events typically form)
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region. In 2023 it formed in the Nino 4 Region in the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific - first time since prior to 1981.
The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is much warmer than normal in response to upwelling of the subsurface warm water.
Although El Nino events typically occur in the Nino 3.4 region in the East Central Tropical pacific - this El Nino formed in the Nino 4 region in the Eastern Pacific off of Peru. This is the first one to form in this region since prior to 1981 and the water in this region is extremely warm - See The Spike on the Graph.
ENSO El Niño Conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer.
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 11 September 2023
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Images to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface.
During the period from 01 August (top panel) to 20 September 2023 (bottom panel) - it can seen that the much warmer than normal subsurface water (red) has expanded in area and is upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Much warmer water (orange) was also upwelling to the surface across the West Central Equitorial Pacific.
A seen in the bottom panel - the subsurface water is now moderating in the Western Portion of the Equatorial Pacific - and even a patch of colder than normal (blue) is beginning to develop. This signifies that the El Niño is now likely at its strongest maturity - but will continue well into the northern hemisphere winter.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 30 August 2023 to 20 September 2023.
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red in top panel) has remained very warm and has not expanded in area. This area of very warm surface water in the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific is due to the strong upwelling of very warm subsurface water.
The much warmer than normal surface water will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer.
This is the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981. Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.
Expect ENSO El Niño conditions becoming stronger into the northern hemisphere winter - southern hemisphere summer.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is much warmer than normal in response to upwelling of the subsurface warm water.
Although El Nino events typically occur in the Nino 3.4 region in the East Central Tropical pacific - this El Nino formed in the Nino 4 region in the Eastern Pacific off of Peru. This is the first one to form in this region since prior to 1981 and the water in this region is extremely warm - See The Spike on the Graph.
ENSO El Niño Conditions will continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2023
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean