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La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño



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Predictions 2 Years into the Future

 

 

 

 Most Accurate Predictions Two Years into the Future

 

 

2-Year Prediction

March 2024 into March 2026

                                               

 United States and North America - Alaska - Canada - Greenland

British Isles - Europe - Southern Hemisphere including Indonesia, Australia

 

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 Predictions Include:       

1.  2- Years into the Future

2.  Dominant weather features for the above regions

3.  El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Condition predictions

4.  Climatological features for the event predicted

5.  Typical Associated Weather Anomalies

Dramatic Weather and Climate Changes 

First El Nino to Form off of Peru Since Prior to 1980

 United States - Europe:  in-depth Winter Predictions  more info...

 (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)        

 

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1.   ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion:  Updated 26 February 2024

                           GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2023

 

a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - the El Niño is now transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions during into early April.  The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water below intensifies.

 

The El Nino will continue to cause unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres into April and May - and then settle down by late May as upwelling of the colder water cools the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific.

This was the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981.  Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.

 

GWO's  2-Year Prediction into March 2026 purhcase here  

b.   NOAA - ENSO (El Niño - La Niña) Prediction - updated 26 February 2024

El Niño Conditions are Observed

ENSO Alert System Status:  El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

El Niño conditions are observed.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño.

A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)

2.    Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 26 February 2024

   

      a.    Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures 

            (down to 250 meters)  - see figure 1 below

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)

During the period from 03 January to 22 February 2024 top to bottom panels) 

the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red) cooled and shrunk dramatically in size and is now confined to small areas in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific.

 

The area of colder than normal subsurface water has spread underneath the warmer water above - all the way into the Cental and Eastern Equatorial Pacific - the cooler than normal subsurface water will expand and intensify during March into June.

 

Expect the colder water to upwell to the surface during middle March and continuing thereafter with a transition to Neutral Conditions in March and April.

 

The El Nino will continue to cause unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres into April and May - and then settle down by late May as upwelling of the colder water cools the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific.

2- Year GWO Predictions

La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions  click here  

 

b.   Surface Water Temperatures:  Niño 3.4 Region

                    (where El Nino events typically form)

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

As of  21 February 2024, the surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms is beginning to moderate - a sign that colder subsurface water is now beginning or will begin shortly and rapidly moderate the surface water.

 

As of 21 February 2024 - colder than normal (see left graphic) subsurface water was building underneath the warm surface water.  This is now moderating surface water temperatures across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific and will rapidly cool the Nino 3.4 Region during March into April as the colder water upwells to the surface.

 

Expect the El Nino to transition to ENSO Neutral Conditions during March into April.

 

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any o
rganization the past 10 years

 

3.    Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

                       

    Current Conditions and Analysis

 

Updated 26 February 2024

 

Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next 

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) a
re below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.

Click Images to Enlarge

SSTs 2024 Subsurface 22 February  2024.png

  Subsurface Temperatures

    Tropical Pacific Ocean

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)

 

During the period from 03

January to 22 February 2024 top to bottom panels) 

the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red) cooled and shrunk dramatically in size and is now confined to  small areas in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific.

 

The area of colder than normal subsurface water has spread underneath the warmer water above - all the way into the Cental and Eastern Equatorial Pacific - the cooler than normal subsurface water will expand and intensify during March into June.

 

Expect the colder water to upwell to the surface during middle March and continuing thereafter with a transition to Neutral Conditions in March and April.

 

The El Nino will continue to cause unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres into April and May - and then settle down by late May as upwelling of the colder water cools the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific.

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

          - Sample -

Subsurface Temperatures

    During a Delveloping

               El Nino

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

Surface Tempeatures Anomalies 21 Febuary  2024.png
2024 ENSO Feb 21  webpage.png

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

Nino Region 3.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

As of  21 February 2024, the surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms is beginning to moderate - a sign that colder subsurface water is now beginning or will begin shortly and rapidly moderate the surface water.

 

As of 21 February 2024 - colder than normal (see left graphic) subsurface water was building underneath the warm surface water.  This is now moderating surface water temperatures across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific and will rapidly cool the Nino 3.4 Region during March into April as the colder water upwells to the surface.

 

Expect the El Nino to transition to ENSO Neutral Conditions during March into April.

 

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2023

      Pacific Ocean Surface

  Temperature Anomalies

             Past 4 Weeks

   

     Panels - Top to Bottom

 

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 31 January 2024 to 21 February 2024.

 

The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - the El Niño is now transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions during into early April.  The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water below intensifies.

 

This was the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981.  Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.

 

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

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