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La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño



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Predictions 2 Years into the Future

 

 

 

 Most Accurate Predictions Two Years into the Future

 

 

  2-Year Prediction

June 2024 into March 2026

( coming late January )

 

Dramatic Weather and Climate Changes 

- Find Out What Will Occur -

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1.   ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion:  Updated 03 July 2024

                           GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2024

 

a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.

ENSO Neutral Conditions - July into October - La Nina Following

 

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 02 June 2024 to 28 June 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).

 

The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 24 05 June 2024 to 28 June - the area of warmer than normal surface water (orange and yellow colors in top panel) has remained about the same in intensity and coverage.

 

Cooler than normal subsurface water (left panel) has not intensified during this period and actually has less upwelling of cool subsurface water upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

The non strengthening of the cool subsurface water will delay the onset on a La Nina event.  Expect strengthening of the upwelling of cooler than normal water to intensify in August into October with a transition to a La Nina following.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

GWO's  2-Year Prediction into March 2026 purhcase here  

b.   NOAA - ENSO Neutral - La Niña) Watch - updated 02 July 2024

ENSO Alert System Status:  Final El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the west-central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean, and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January)

2.    Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 03 July 2024

   

      a.    Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures 

            (down to 250 meters)  - see figure 1 below

 

During the period from 08 May to 28 June 2024 (top to bottom panels)

the area of colder than normal subsurface water has diminished in area coverage and has less upwelling to the surface in the  Eastern Tropical Pacific.

 

The area coverage of the colder than normal subsurface water will expand during late July into October with upwelling of colder subsurface water to the surface intensifying during August into October.

 

Neutral ENSO conditions will continue into September with a transition to La Nina conditions following.

 

Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue and then settle down during late July as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change to Neutral ENSO Conditions.

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

Find Out When the next El Niño will begin - and end

                              2- Year GWO Predictions

                                                   La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions  click here  

 

b.   Surface Water Temperatures:  Niño 3.4 Region

                    (where El Nino events typically form)

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 02 June 2024 to 28 June 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).

 

The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 24 05 June 2024 to 28 June - the area of warmer than normal surface water (orange and yellow colors in top panel) has remained about the same in intensity and coverage.

 

Cooler than normal subsurface water (left panel) has not intensified during this period and actually has less upwelling of cool subsurface water upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

The non strengthening of the cool subsurface water will delay the onset on a La Nina event.  Expect strengthening of the upwelling of cooler than normal water to intensify in August into October with a transition to a La Nina following.

                             Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any o
rganization the past 10 years

 

3.    Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

                       

Current Conditions and Analysis

 

Updated 03 July 2024

 

Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next 

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) a
re below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.

2024 ENSO SubSurface Temperature 02 July  2024.png

  Subsurface Temperatures

    Tropical Pacific Ocean

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)

 

During the period from 08 May to 28 June 2024 (top to bottom panels)

the area of colder than normal subsurface water has diminished in area coverage and has less upwelling to the surface in the  Eastern Tropical Pacific.

 

The area coverage of the colder than normal subsurface water will expand during late July into October with upwelling of colder subsurface water to the surface intensifying during August into October.

 

Neutral ENSO conditions will continue into September with a transition to La Nina conditions following.

 

Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue and then settle down during late July as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change to Neutral ENSO Conditions.

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

Click Images to Enlarge

          - Sample -

Subsurface Temperatures

    During a Delveloping

               El Nino

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

ENSO 02 July 2024 sfc anomalies.png

      Pacific Ocean Surface

  Temperature Anomalies

             Past 4 Weeks

   

     Panels - Top to Bottom

 

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 05 June 2024 to 28 June 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).

 

The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 24 05 June 2024 to 28 June - the area of warmer than normal surface water (orange and yellow colors in top panel) has remained about the same in intensity and coverage.

 

Cooler than normal subsurface water (left panel) has not intensified during this period and actually has less upwelling of cool subsurface water upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

The non strengthening of the cool subsurface water will delay the onset on a La Nina event.  Expect strengthening of the upwelling of cooler than normal water to intensify in August into October with a transition to a La Nina following.

 

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

2024 ENSO April 17 webpage.png

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

Nino Region 3.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 02 June 2024 to 28 June 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).

 

The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 24 05 June 2024 to 28 June - the area of warmer than normal surface water (orange and yellow colors in top panel) has remained about the same in intensity and coverage.

 

Cooler than normal subsurface water (left panel) has not intensified during this period and actually has less upwelling of cool subsurface water upwelling to the surface in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

 

The non strengthening of the cool subsurface water will delay the onset on a La Nina event.  Expect strengthening of the upwelling of cooler than normal water to intensify in August into October with a transition to a La Nina following.

 

 

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024

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