La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
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May 2024 into March 2026
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Predictions Include:
1. 2- Years into the Future
2. Dominant weather features for the above regions
3. El Nino - La Nina - Neutral Condition predictions
4. Climatological features for the event predicted
5. Typical Associated Weather Anomalies
Dramatic Weather and Climate Changes
First El Nino to Form off of Peru Since Prior to 1980
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1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 22 April 2024
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2024
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
El Niño Conditions are Observed - will transition to ENSO Neutral by around 01 May
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 March 2024 to 27 March 2024 (from to to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 27 March 17 April 2024 - the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red - orange and yellow colors in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - but still remains warm enough to be called an El Niño.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the Eastern Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface during late April and greatly cool the surface water during the period May through July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-Year Prediction into March 2026 purhcase here
b. NOAA - ENSO (El Niño - La Niña) Prediction - updated 22 April 2024
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).*
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 22 April 2024
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
During the period from 22 February 2024 to 13 April 2024 (top to bottom panels) the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red and orange)) has become completely modified as it cooled from upwell of colder water below,
The subsurface in the Equatorial Tropical Pacific as of 13 April was void of warmer than normal water and colder than normal subsurface water now dominates the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
The upwelling of the colder subsurface water will cool the surface water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during late April with the El Nino transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions around 01 May and then continuing cooling during June into September.
Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue through late April and May - and then settle down during June as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change.
2- Year GWO Predictions
La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions click here
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
(where El Nino events typically form)
As of 17 April 2024 - warmer than normal subsurface water (see left graphic) has intensified and now stretches across the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific Ocean.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the East-Central Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface in late April and greatly cool the surface water during May into July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around 01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 22 April 2024
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Images to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 22 February 2024 to 13 April 2024 (top to bottom panels) the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red and orange)) has become completely modified as it cooled from upwell of colder water below,
The subsurface in the Equatorial Tropical Pacific as of 13 April was void of warmer than normal water and colder than normal subsurface water now dominates the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
The upwelling of the colder subsurface water will cool the surface water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during late April with the El Nino transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions around 01 May and then continuing cooling during June into September.
Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue through late April and May - and then settle down during June as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 March 2024 to 27 March 2024 (from to to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 27 March 17 April 2024 - the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red - orange and yellow colors in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - but still remains warm enough to be called an El Niño.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the Eastern Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface during late April and greatly cool the surface water during the period May through July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
This was the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981. Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
As of 17 April 2024 - warmer than normal subsurface water (see left graphic) has intensified and now stretches across the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific Ocean.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the East-Central Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface in late April and greatly cool the surface water during May into July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around 01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2023
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures