United States
2014-15 Winter and Spring Predictions     

by

David Dilley, GWO

 

*Patent Pending - Climate Pulse Technology - for prediction climate/weather cycles

 

 

  GWO's Climate Pulse Technology incorporates several factors for determining the United State's winter of

  2014-15.  Determination of the severity of the 2015 winter (November 2014 into April 2015) is based on the

  Natural Climate Pulse similarties to past years, the cooling of the Artic and expanding extent of Artic ice, positions

  of semi-permanent weather features such as the Aleutian low pressure center,  and the presence or non

  presence of an El Nino or La Nina.

 

1.  United States - Temperatures

 

 

     Prediction:  Last winter (2013-14) was the coldest in 15 to 25 years over the eastern two thirds of the United

                              States, and especially across the upper mid-west.   The winter was preceded by about 120

                              consecutive days of below normal temperatures across much of the high Artic region. 

                              This extended period of  cold temperatures had not occurred in this region since the mid to late

                              1970s.  This was once of the main ingredients that led to very cold Arctic Polar Vortex outbreaks

                              across Canada and the central and eastern portions of the United States.  Meanwhile the west

                              coast of the United States was dry and warm, and Europe was likewise mild.

 

                             Could the winter of 2014-15 be a repeat performance of the 2013-14 winter?

                             GWO was the only organization to correctly predict there would not be an El Nino during the

                             the 2014 summer and fall, and GWO is one of the few organizations predicting there will not be

                             an El Nino this winter.  With no El Nino in sight, and once again a period of about 120 consecutive

                             days of below normal temperatures across the high Arctic region during the 2014 spring and

                             summer months, the answer is "Yes" it very well may be a repeat winter. But it all depends on the

                             position of the Arctic Polar Vortex's.  Will they occur in the same location, or more to the east or

                             West?

 

                             Reasons for another winter similar to 2013-14 winter:  GWO predicts the atmospheric conditions

                             causing the California drought will continue, there will not be an El Nino this winter (GWO's

                             prediction), there was colder than normal high Arctic temperatures this past summer, much like

                             last fall there is a large expanse of Arctic ice (this is where cold air pools), GWO expects the

                             atmospheric circulation will allow substantial Arctic air to penetrate  southward across the central

                             and eastern portions of the United States.

 

                             The period from about 1997 through 2012 was the second twin peak of the now ending

                             global warming cycle.  Every global warming cycle comes like clockwork about every 216 years

                             and is noted by two twin warm temperature periods that last approximately 10-12 years.

                             The first temperature peak occurred from about 1930 to 1940, the second and final peak

                             from about 1997 to 2012.  Rapid cooling of the high Arctic in 2013 and 2014 denotes the

                             ending of the global warming cycle.  Next cycle will be in about 120 years.

 

                             GWO's prediction for the winter of 2014-15 is much like last year's.  Wobbling Polar Vortex's

                             will provide alternating shifts from extremely cold to near normal periods across much of the

                             United states, with the western areas of the United States again experiencing above normal

                             temperatures, but with a few cold Arctic Outbreaks and possible freezes in the citrus belt.

 

                             Temperatures across the eastern two thirds of the United States will be much colder than

                             the mild global warming period (1997-2012) as global cooling begins its' grip.

                             It will be well below the 1997-2012 average temperaturs from the upper mid west across the

                             central Great Lakes eastward to New England and south to the Carolinas.  This will likely be

                             the coldest winter since the 1960s or early 1970s, and bring freezes into the deep south.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.  United States - Snow

 

     Prediction:  Frequent outbreaks of cold Artic air will cause numerous Alberta Clippers across

                          the northern plains that once reaching the east coast will likely cause

                          northeasters to form along the Atlantic Seaboard.  Hurricane seasons which

                          have fewer than normal named storms are often followed by winter

                          northeasters.  Expect difficulties in coastal cities from Washington to Maine, and

                          once again in some southern cities.

 

                           The Alberta Clipper type storms will cause above normal snow to fall across

                           the central and northern Plains.  The combination of Alberta Clippers and

                           Arctic Cold Air outbreaks will cause above normal Lake Affect snow across the

                           lee side of the Great Lakes all the way to western New York State.         

                          

                           The combination of snow and cold will make this one of the most severe winters

                           since the 1970s and 80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.  United States - Precipitation

 

     Prediction:  The 2014-15 winter and spring will be much like the 2011 winter with above normal

                            precipitation from the lower Mississippi River basin northward to the upper plains and east to the

                            eastern seaboard.  This will provide deep snow cover across the upper Mississippi watershed area,

                            this coupled with a wet April and rapid snow melt will likely cause the 11th greatest Mississippi

                            River Flooding of the past 100 years.

                            

                            The Aleutian Low Pressure system over the northern Pacific Ocean will remain too far north to

                            relieve the drought in California.  Oregon and Washington States will likely see above normal

                            precipitation, with far northern California likely seeing near or above precipitation.

                            Expect California to see more precipitation than last year, but still below normal and continuing the

                            drought conditions.