Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Tropical Cyclone Risk Probability Predictions
East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States
For
2015
Issued 15 January 2015
This Product is For Purchaser’s Internal Use Only
Distribution is strictly forbidden by GWO
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
4423 SE 14th Street
Ocala, Florida 34480 USA
Email: dilley@GlobalWeatherOscillations.com
www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com
1.0 Background and Introduction
There are a number of factors that are related to the formation and tracks of tropical cyclones during the hurricane season for the North Atlantic Basin which includes the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
One factor is the temperatures of the sea surface; are they running near normal, above normal, or below normal? Warmer temperatures are more favorable conditions for development of stronger storms and more major hurricanes, whereas colder ocean temperatures would lead to less intense storms.
A second factor in predicting the number of storms for the season is the three phases of the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Will there be extensive warming of the Tropical South Pacific Ocean water in the eastern Pacific to cause an El Niño to form? Will there be too much cooling of the ocean water in this region to cause a La Niña, the opposite phase of an El Niño? Or, will it be a period in which neither is present? This is referred to as ENSO Neutral conditions.
The El Niño is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, and when an El Niño is in place, Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone activity is typically less than average. Conversely when a La Niña or Neutral conditions are in place, Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone activity is enhanced (see section 3.1 for the GWO El Niño, La Niña outlook).
Another major factor in predicting seasonal hurricane tracks is the average position and strength of the “Azores-Bermuda High”, which is also known as the North Atlantic (Subtropical) High Pressure Center (Anticyclone). Much like the North Pacific High off of the west coast of the United States, the Bermuda-Azores high is what meteorologists call a large “semi-permanent” area of high pressure center. Semi-permanent means it is normally in that location, but does meander from time to time. The Bermuda-Azores High is found south of the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean.
As seen in Figure 1.1, the clockwise wind flow and atmospheric steering currents around the high determines the eventual path of tropical cyclones during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, the High Pressure center meanders in position from season to season, thus influencing the tracks of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms). For example; if the ridge of the High is displaced to the north, this can lead to devastating storm paths such as the one taken by the New England Hurricane of 1938.
If the High is strongly displaced to the south such as it did in 2014, the strong ridge of high pressure will also displace the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a favorable area for storm development, too far to the south. This displacement in turn causes more sand to be blown off the African coast, making a hostile eastern Atlantic environment that causes abnormally fewer storms to form in the middle and eastern tropical Atlantic region.
2014 Storm Development Controlling Factors
What caused the shift from the quiet period for one month to a more active pattern? It is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward traveling atmospheric wave that causes a band of enhanced then suppressed thunderstorm activity that occurs in the tropics every 30-50 days. We were in the suppressed conditions for the beginning of the quiet period, but we had come into the enhanced phase of the MJO after 10 October. Three storms developed during the 3 weeks after that time.
One month of inactivity during the normal peak of activity in the tropics was part of the reason the season was below normal. Another reason is that the Azores-Bermuda High was strongly displaced to the south similar to 2013. The strong ridge of high pressure also displaced the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) too far south. That caused more African sand to be blown off of Africa, thus making a hostile eastern Atlantic environment which resulted in abnormally fewer storms to form in the middle and eastern tropical Atlantic region. The ITCZ is normally a favorable area for storm development.
Other organizations that release pre-season hurricane predictions, expected an El Niño would form in 2013 and 2014. An El Niño typically causes hostile wind shear that suppresses hurricane formation. But as predicted by GWO, an El Niño did not develop in either year. Instead, GWO was the only organization to predict a cyclically strong Natural Climate Pulse Hurricane Suppression Cycle (CPHSC). This cycle typically occurs in conjunction with El Niño cycles, but GWO’s research has found it also occurs without an El Niño approximately every 21 to 24 years. It was the CPHSC that caused the North Pacific High to be pulled abnormally far to the north, which in turn, pushed the Azores-Bermuda High further to the south than normal, much like a teeter totter. This in turn caused the severe drought in California, and blocked the seasonal northward progression of the ITCZ from reaching its optimum latitude for favorable tropical cyclone development. The combination of the suppressed ITCZ and the Azores-Bermuda High also allowed a wind pattern that caused more than usual African Sand to be blown off of Africa and over the prime tropical cyclone development region.
Risk Prediction Definitions:
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model (GWO-CPT) assigns a risk probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.
The upper value is 60% to 75% and denotes a high risk that the predicted event will occur. The low end of the scale is 5% to 25% and denotes a predicted low risk the event will occur. GWO also issues risk predictions for major hurricanes. If a hurricane does occur in the zone that year, the upper value for a major hurricane is 50% to 70% and denotes a high risk that a major hurricane event will occur.
The GWO-CPT predicted risk is compared to the ARR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that specific year to the long-term average annual risk.
Zone 6 - East Coast of Florida from Cape Canaveral -South to Miami
Risk Definitions: Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk; Low, Moderate and High.
Hurricanes - tropical storms:
High Risk 60% to 75% (event is likely to occur)
Moderate Risk 30% to 55% (event is possible, but not likely)
Low risk 5% to 25% (not expected to occur)
Major Hurricane: If a hurricane actually occurs – risk the hurricane will be major
High Risk 50% to 70% (if a hurricane occurs)
Moderate 25% to 45%
Low Risk less than 25%
Predictions for 2015: Miami to Cape Canaveral Florida (issued in January 2015)
2015 Risk Annaul Climatology
2015 Hurricane conditions High 60 % 20 % (event is likely to occur)
Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs Moderate 40 % 8 %
Tropical Storm conditions High 65 % 35 %
* When GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.
Predictdion Analysis and Summary
The return ASR risk for hurricane conditions somewhere within this zone is 20 percent; this is an average of 1 hurricane every 5 years. But this zone has not experienced a hurricane landfall or hurricane conditions since the very active 2004 and 2005 seasons, a period of 9 years, and thus is becoming overdue.
The GWO-CPT Climate Pulse hurricane model indicates this zone is now entering an active cycle for either direct hurricane strikes (landfall), hurricanes trans versing the zone, or influencing nearby zones very close to this zone.
The GWO-CPT hurricane model is tracking a very active hurricane cycle similar to the period from 1946 through 1949, and is predicting a high risk for a hurricane in 2015.
The Analog year similar to 2015; In 1949 a Category 4 hurricane moved from southeast to northwest making landfall near Miami in late August, then continued across state to near Cedar Key.
Disclaimer for Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Risk Probabilities for the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States for 2014*
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE TROPICALCYCLONE, TROPICAL STORM, AND HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.
IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, AND EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.
OFFICIAL SOURCES (US GOVERNMENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - NHC) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES. THE LINK TO THE NHC IS http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
*Standard type of disclaimer for the meteorological services industry