Major Earthquake Prediction
California Region
Tectonic Pulse Cycle # 13
2013 ending spring 2015
by Global Weather Oscillations Inc
Prediction Created - April 2011 Public Release - April 23, 2012
High Risk (90%) Major Earthquake (6.5 to 8 Magnitude) December 2013 to June 2014
Moderate Risk (35%) (6.4 to 6.9 Magnitude) July 2014 to June 2015
Earthquakes Occurring during Prediction Period
5.1 in "Brea" near Los Angeles
6.8 near Eureka - March 10, 2014
6.0 American Canyon, California - August 24, 2014
Prediction: Next Electromagnetic Tetonic Cycles # 14 for California click here
GWO Earthquake Project
Prediction Summary: High risk for a major California earthquake from December 2013 into March 2014, with a predicted risk of (75%) for a major California earthquake continuing until July 2014.
1. Introduction
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), was formed with the specific understanding that Earth has natural rhythms
and strong cyclical natural forces. These forces control much of the global cooling and global warming cycles of
climate change, carbon dioxide cycles, annual variations in hurricane activity and seasonal hurricane paths, cyclical
occurrences of the El Nino and La Nina, cyclical historical flood such as the 2011 Mississippi River flood, and
earthquakes.
With over 20 years of ongoing research, GWO has incorporated the disciplines of Meteorology,
Oceanography, Climatology, Geology, Seismology, Astronomy and Astrophysics into developmental phases for
researching and instituting prediction models for the various aspects of the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.
One of the most significant discoveries by GWO is the strong link found between oscillation pulses of
external forcing, designated by GWO as the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)". The PFM is the
link between the internal and external rhythm of the earth, which likely causes cyclical regional major
earthquakes and climate oscillations.
The PFM is essentially cyclical oscillations of the "Lunisolar Precession" that cause changes
within the Earth-Sun gravity field. This is the magnetic field originating from the ratio between
electrons to its nucleus mass diameters. The Earth-Sun Lunisolar gravity field is very strong, with
variations in the pulses of up to 47%. If it was not for these strong gravitational tidal forces, the earth
would spin out of control (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles). It is these forces that tend
to keep earth's orbit and rhythm in balance and create internal and external cycles.
Recognizing that pulses and oscillations of the external mechanism of the PFM cause cyclical stress
on the internal structure beneath the surface of earth, GWO has developed a prediction model correlating
the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)" to recurring major earthquake cycles within geographic region
is around the world, including California. Click here for a detailed description of the dynamics that
cause earthquakes, and why they can be predicted by Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
More information is available in the GWO eBook "Natural Climate Pulse" "free download" click here
2. Major Earthquake Prediction - California Region
Prediction Summary - In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced
increased earthquake activity. The window is centered on the period December 2013 to March 2014.
There is an overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk
for a major (7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake.
Note that the risk for a major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk. The highest predicted risk of
(75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the greatest and most likely risk period
being December 2013 into March 2014.
*Note: Earthquakes of Magnitude (M) 7.0 to 7.9 are designated as “Major” on the Moment Magnitude Scale - MMS
(MMS scale replaced the Richter Scale in the 2002).
Earthquakes of Magnitude 8.0 to 9.9 are designated as “Great” on the MMS Scale (formarly the Richter Scale).
Date Magnitude Risk
July 2011 - June 2012 M 7.0 - 8.0 = 7 % risk
M 7.0 - 7.4 = 5 % risk
M 7.5 - 8.0 = 2 % risk
July 2012 - June 2013 M 7.0 - 8.0 = 30 % risk
M 7.0 - 7.4 = 20 % risk
M 7.5 - 8.0 = 10 % risk
July 2013 - June 2014 M 7.0 - 8.0= 75 % risk (highest risk December - March)
M 7.0 - 7.4= 35 % risk (highest risk December - March)
M 7.5 - 8.0= 40 % risk (highest risk December - March)
July 2014 - June 2015 M 7.0 - 8.0 = 20 % risk
M 7.0 - 7.4 = 10 % risk
M 7.5 - 8.0 = 10 % risk
July 2015 - June 2016 M 7.0 - 8.0 = 7 % risk
M 7.0 - 7.4 = 5 % risk
M 7.5 - 8.0 = 2 % risk
3. Frequency Risk - California 6.4 to 7.9 Magnitude Earthquake
Based on 112 years of record (1900-2011) for strong earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.4 to 6.9,
California experienced 11 strong earthquakes since the year 1900, giving an expected return risk of 1 strong
earthquake every 10 years. When factoring in major earthquakes with magnitudes of 7 or greater, there
was a total of 24 (6.4 to 7.9) strong or major earthquakes in this region. This is a very high frequency
region with an average of 1 strong 6.4 or greater earthquake expected with a periodicity of about one
occurrence every 5 years.
Magnitude Return Risks 112 year history
Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 8.0 earthquake = 20.2 % 1 every 5 years
Average annual risk for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake = 10.2 % 1 every 10 years
Average annual risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake = 11.7 % 1 every 10 years
Average annual risk for a 7.5 to 8.0 earthquake = 1.5 % 1 every 70 years
Of greater significance than the 6.4 to 6.9 earthquakes, is major earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or
greater. During the 112 year period since 1900, 13 major earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9 have
occurred, giving an expected return risk of 1 every 9 years. However, most of the earthquakes
were between 7.0 to 7.4 magnitude with a return risk of 1 every 10 years. But only 1 earthquake
greater than 7.4 magnitude occurred since 1900, the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 with a
magnitude of 7.8. This was 106 years ago, and there is a 70 year return risk frequency.
The most devastating California earthquakes are traditionally those greater than 7.4 magnitude.
Looking at records dating back an additional 100 years to the year 1800 (total of 212 years), a 7.8
occurred in 1892, 7.9 in 1857 and the great 7.8 magnitude San Francisco earthquake in 1906. Taking
these into account, a total of 3 severe major earthquakes have occurred in the past 212 years. This gives
a periodicity risk for an approximate 7.8 major earthquake of 1 every 70 years (212 year record), which
is only a 1.5% annual risk.
Figure 1 - Depicts the GWO annual prediction risk in percent for an earthquake of
magnitude 6.4 or greater for each year from 2011 into 2017. Notice the risk for a
6.4 to 8 earthquake is only 10% in 2011 and 2012 (longterm mean is 10%). The GWO
prediction risk rises sharply to a 40% risk in mid 2012 and to a 90% risk during the period
from July 2013 to July 2014.
4. GWO Prediction - 6.4 to 7.9 Magnitude California Earthquake
90 Percent Risk from Mid 2013 to Early 2014
The Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) earthquake model tracks analog years associated with the
periodicity and strength of the PFM's (Primary Forcing Mechanism) cycles to earthquake magnitude
strengths. Current tracking of PFM analog years indicates that California is entering an active cycle for the
occurrence, or occurrences of strong to major earthquakes.
The GWO model forecast pinpoints the expected year, and the most likely season of the year it will occur.
The model has correlated approximately 90 percent with the major California earthquakes since the year 1899.
The expected performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.
California normally has about a 20% annual risk for an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 8.0 magnitude,
and a 10% annual risk for a magnitude of 7 to 8. Looking at Figure 1 below, the GWO Risk Prediction for a
strong to major earthquake was only 10% during the period from 2011 into 2012 (forecast prepared in 2011).
The GWO Prediction Risk then increases to 40% (well above the annual 10% risk) during the period from
July 2012 to July 2013, and to 90% for the period July 2013 to July 2014 (see table 1). The GWO
Earthquake Model predicts the greatest risk for a major earthquake during the period from December 2013
into March 2014.
Figure 2 - Shows the GWO model forecast for the overall earthquake risk in red.
Notice from July 2013 to July 2014 the risk for a major California earthquake
increases to 75%.
5. GWO Prediction for a Major 7.0 to 7.9 California Earthquake
7.0 to 8.0 Magnitude 75 Percent Risk from Mid 2013 to Early 2014
7.0 to 7.4 Magnitude 35% Risk
7.5 to 8.0 Magnitude 40% Risk
Earthquakes usually come in differing frequency patterns, thus several strong earthquakes can occur
within just a few years of each other, or none during a 10-year period. Major earthquakes of 7.5 to
7.9 have even a greater variation in periodicity, with 3 major severe earthquakes within 49 years of each
other in 1857, 1892 and 1906, but none since 1906.
Of special note; all of the 3 severe 7.8 and 7.9 major earthquakes since the year 1800 occurred within
49 years of each other in 1857, 1892 and 1906. These 3 major earthquakes occurred during an increased
GWO PFM periodicity cycle, and this region is now entering another increased PFM periodicity cycle.
Figure 2 shows the overall Predicted Risk for a magnitude 7 to 8 California earthquake. There is an
overall 75% risk for a major earthquake during the forecast period from July 2013 to July 2014, with
a 35% risk for a 7 to 7.4 earthquake. Of special note, is the high 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8.0 magnitude
earthquake during the period Mid 2013 to Early 2014.
Figure 3 - Column 1 (white bar) shows the forecast for a 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake. Column 2
(yellow bar) risk for a 7.0 to 7.4 earthquake, and column 3 (red bar) s the risk forecast for a
major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 to 8.0. Notice the risk for a major or severe
earthquake is very high from mid 2013 to mid 2014 (35% and 40%).
The graph in Figure 3 shows GWO's prediction for three earthquake magnitude categories. Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9
(white bar), magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 (yellow bar), and the severe magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 (red bar).
During the period from July 2012 to 2013 the GWO risk prediction for a strong magnitude 6.5 to 6.9
increase to a 35%,, with the risk for a major 7 to 7.4 earthquake increasing to 23% and the risk for a
severe 7.5 to 8 earthquake remaining relatively low at 10%. The overall risk for a strong to major earthquake is 40%
during this period.
For the forecast period from July 2013 to July 2014, the risk for a strong or major earthquake increases
from 40% to 90% (see figure 1). Risk for a strong earthquake (6.5 to 6.9) is predicted to lower to 25%
during this period, while the risk for a major 7 to 7.4 magnitude increases to 35%, and the risk
for a severe 7.5 to 8 earthquake increases to to 40%. From July 2013 to July 2014, there is an overall
75% risk for a major California earthquake (see figure 2).
Summary
Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), was formed in 1992 with the specific understanding that Earth has a natural
rhythm. One of the most significant discoveries by GWO is the strong link found between oscillation pulses of
external forcing designated by GWO as the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM)", to earthquak cycles. This natural
forcing likely regulates much of the the internal and external rhythm of the earth, with this rhythm and PFM pulses
likely causing cyclical regional major earthquakes.
The PFM is essentially cyclical oscillations of the "Lunisolar Precession", with these oscillations causing changes
in the nucleus nucleus mass diameters. The Earth-Sun Lunisolar gravity field is so strong with variation pulses of up to 47%, and if it was not for these strong gravitational tidal forces, the earth would spin out of control. It is these forces that tend to keep earth's orbit and rhythm in balance and create internal and external cycles.
In July of 2012, California will enter a three year window for PFM induced increased earthquake activity. There is an
overall 90% risk for a major to strong earthquake (6.4 to 8 magnitude) during this period, a 75% risk for a major
(7 to 8 magnitude) earthquake, and a 40% risk for a severe 7.5 to 8 magnitude earthquake. Note that the risk for a
major earthquake is very much above the long-term risk.
The highest predicted risk of (75%) for a major earthquake is from July 2013 to July 2014, with the
greatest and most likely risk period being December 2013 into March 2014.
Appendix
Table 1
The forecast pinpoints the expected year and the most likely season of the year it will occur. The GWO model
correlated approximately 90 percent with major California earthquakes since the year 1899.
The expected performance of the GWO earthquake model is also expected to be in the 90 percent range.
Probabilities are assigned to the likelihood of the magnitude quake expected
90 percent overall probability of an earthquake in the range of 6.4 to 8.0.
60 percent for a magnitude 7 to 8.0 magnitude.
50 percent for a magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 earthquake.
July 2010 to June 2011
Magnitude Risk in Percent
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 =10 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 2 % risk
July 2011 to June 2012
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 =10 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 2 % risk
July 2012 to June 2013
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 = 40 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 8.0 = 30 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 35 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 20 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 10 % risk
July 2013 to June 2014
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 =90 % risk December 2013 to March 2014
Magnitude 7.0 to 8.0 =75 % risk December 2013 to March 2014
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 30 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 35 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 40 % risk
July 2014 to June 2015
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 = 40 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 35 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 10 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 10 % risk
July 2015 to June 2016
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 =10 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 2 % risk
July 2018 to June 2017
Magnitude 6.4 to 8.0 = 10 % risk
Magnitude 6.4 to 6.9 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.0 to 7.4 = 5 % risk
Magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 = 2 % risk
Disclaimer for Earthquake Risk Probabilities for California.
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.
IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.
OFFICIAL SOURCES (USGS United States Gelological Survey) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES.
