La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño



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Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions

Updated 11 May 2020

                                       

ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation

Includes:  El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditons

ENSO Neutral Conditions are defined as:  Neither El Niño nor La Niña Conditions

 

 

 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)  - Prediction and Analyses:  

 GWO's  2-Year Prediction May 2020 into May 2022)  click here  

                                

1.     GWO Analysis:  ENSO Neutral Conditions are in Place

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last  7 weeks,  an area of  above normal warm subsurface water weakened and has been replaced by an expanding area of colder than normal subsurface ocean water across the tropical South Pacific.

 

Ocean temperature cycles typically persist for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

                             What comes next?.  Find out with GWO's 2-year prediction - most accurate prediction available

Subsurface Water Temperatures:  Updated 11 May  2020

Niño 3.4 Region - (where El Nino events typically form)

Subsurface temperatures are now colder than normal in this region and beginning to upwell to the surface.

Subsurface ocean temperatures (down to 250 meters): Updated 11 May 2020 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last  7 weeks,  an area of colder than normal  subsurface water intensified and spread eastward across the entire subsurface of the Tropical South Pacific.  The area of warmer than normal subsurface water has dissipated

Surface Water Temperatures:  Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific Updated 11 May 2020 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have cooled over much of the Tropical South Pacific in the East but remains warmer than normal across much of the Western portion.

 

                                                                                    

2.    GWO's 2-year Prediction - May 2020 into May 2022

Powered by ClimatePulse Technology

 more info here

The most accurate of any organization during the past 10 years 

Pinpoints the changing cycles - and predicts when the next

major change in the ocean temperatures will take place.  

   

3.     NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC):   Updated 11 May 2020

 Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near to above average across the Pacific Ocean.

 The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with

 ENSO-neutral.

ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere spring into fall (April into October) 2020 with a (60% chance),   

                                       

GWO's 2- year prediction has been the most accurate and consistent by

any organization the past 10-years ... more info                       

 

                      

4.    Current Conditions - Updated 11 May 2020

SSTs Subsurface 03 MY 2020.png

Click Image to Enlarge

         Pacific "Subsurface"

              Ocean Water  

    Temperature Anomalies

Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 14 March 2020 (top graphic) to 04 May 2020  (bottom graphic). Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last  7 weeks,  an area of colder than normal  subsurface water intensified and spread eastward across the entire subsurface of the Tropical South Pacific.  The area of warmer than normal subsurface water has dissipated.

 

Ocean temperature cycles typically persist for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

ENSO Neutral Conditions are dominating - but for how long?.  GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into May of 2022.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.

 

.

Click Image to Enlarge

            - Sample -

Subsurface  Temperatures

    During A Delveloping

                El Nino

 

   Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Nino.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

SurfaceTempAnomalies 06 May 2020.png

Click Image to Enlarge

Pacific Ocean Surface

    Temperature Anomalies   

Past 4 Weeks

     

     Panels - Top to Bottom

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 15 April to 06 May 2020. 

Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water. 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have cooled over much of the Tropical South Pacific in the East but remains warmer than normal across much of the Western portion.

 

El Niño conditions typically occur in association with warm water across the East-Central and/or Eastern tropical Pacific.  However, the water is not warm enough and reflects ENSO Neutral Conditions.

 

Thus - ENSO Neutral Conditions are in place.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

 

2020 ENSO May 06 webpage.png

Click Image to Enlarge 

Nino Region 2.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

 Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

The graphic above shows the surface water temperatures in this region.  The dashed white line is the GWO Climate Pulse power spectrum, and the blue is the water temperatures (SSTs). Time period is 2008 through 06 May 2020.

 

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically occurs has begun to cool in response to the colder than normal subsurface water spreading eastward across the region.

Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect Neutral Conditions during the next few months. 

 

For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur. 

As of  06 May 2020 -  ENSO Neutral Conditions are in place.

 

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year pediction

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2020.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year pediction

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2020.

 

 

 

 

  • 2-Year El Niño Prediction -  Accurate Look into the Future -  into May 2022                                  more info...

 

  •    United States 2020  Winter Predictions -  (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)                        more info...

  • British Isles and Europe 2020  Winter Predictions -  (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)     more info...

  •   Expert Climate Change Speaker -   El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes                                         more info... 

 

  •   TV Interview - David Dilley -  Dangerous Climate Change in 2020

                                                              What the Government and Media has Not Told You  !

 

                                                                      Video link:  click here

  • Overview:   ENSO -  El Niño Southern Oscillation

 

                   The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional

                   weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.

 

                   El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface

                   water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.

                   This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier

                   conditions in other  regions.

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

Overview of GWO's Climate Research

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

 

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

 

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

 

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).  An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August.  An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009.  The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.

A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere.  This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred.  Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.

GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate".  GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.

A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans.  This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


GWO Products:  ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1.   La Niña  -  Neutral Conditions - El Niño
    
2.   Hurricane Zone Forecasts
     a.   2  year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Plus Package"
           (issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
     b.   1  year forecast - pick your zone "Standard Package"
            

3.    Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)


3.    Earthquake Predictions
       a.   Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
        


4 .   Climate Change eBook -   " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "


5.    Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers  

Overview of GWO's Climate Research

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

 

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

 

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

 

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).  An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August.  An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009.  The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.

A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere.  This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred.  Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.

GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate".  GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.

A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans.  This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


GWO Products:  ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1.   La Niña  -  Neutral Conditions - El Niño
    
2.   Hurricane Zone Forecasts
     a.   4  year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
           (issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
     b.   2  year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
           (issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
     c.   1  year forecast - pick your zone "Consumer Package"
           (available to the public on or before June 1 of the hurricane season)

3.    Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)


3.    Earthquake Predictions
       a.   Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
       b.   California Pilot Predictions issued April 25, 2012  



4 .   Climate Change eBook -   " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "


5.    Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers  

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