El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
Climate Pulse Technology
Predictions 2 Years into the Future
Most Accurate Predictions Two Years into the Future
Pacific "Subsurface" Ocean Water
Temperature Anomalies
Panels - Top to Bottom
Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 25 October 2016 (top graphic) to 09 December 2016 (bottom graphic).
Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red. As noted in the time series - the cold subsurface water has split in half (bottom graphic) and subsurface ocean temperatures are modifying across the Equatorial Tropical South Pacific Ocean. The cold subsurface water is shrinking rapidly and the warmer subsurface water is expanding. What does this mean? Will weak La Nina Conditions end soon - or will it lead to something else? click here for GWO's 2-year prediction that contains unexpected major changes.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 23 November to 14 December 2016. Red denotes above average warm water, blue is colder than normal. Notice the thin strip of cold surface water across the equatorial central and eastern Tropical Pacific that has actually diminished during the past 4-weeks. La Niña conditions typically have a much broader area of cold water, but this La Niña is surrounded by warmer than normal surface water. Notice the expanding subsurface warm water. How long will the weak La Niña Conditions last? Find out what will happen next with GWO's 2-year prediction Click here The most accurate prediction by any organization the past 9-years.
Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influcences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
Current Conditions: ENSO (El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditons)
Updated 19 December 2016 - El Niño Southern Oscillation including La Niña
Major Changes Taking Place - read GWO's discussion and graphics below -
As of December 7th, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) "says Weak La Niña Conditions are Continuing.
Tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean water temperatures are colder than normal (left graphic below),
and a "narrow band" of colder than normal Tropical Pacific Ocean surface water (center graphics below)
and abnomalties in atmospheric wind indicates a weak La Nina remains in place at this time - but
for how long? See GWO's additional information in the grahics and discussion of the graphics below.
Important - The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is predicting the weak La Niña will tranisition to
Neutral Conditions during the period January 2017 to March 2017.
NOAA has not been consistent with their predictions - back and forth from a La Niña to Neutral
Conditons and then back to a La Niña conditions.
Will La Niña conditions continue - or will something else occur?
Find out with GWO's 2- year prediction that has been the most accurate and consistent of any
organization the past 9-years ... more info What You Can Expect next 2 - Years
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2 Year Prediction - Accurate Look into the Future - December 2016 into November 2018 more info...
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United States 2017 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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Expert Climate Change Speaker - El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes more info...
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TV Interview - David Dilley - Is Climate Change Dangerous? - The Rest of the Story
Rave reviews - provides the viewer a full picture and understanding
of climate change, and cyclical climate change. Video link: click here
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
Current Conditions (December 14, 2016)
Nino 3.4 Eastern Pacific
"Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The graphic above shows the surface water temperatures in this region. The dashed white line is the GWO Climate Pulse power spectrum, and the blue is the water temperatures (SSTs). Time period is 2008 through December 14, 2016. Note the surface water cooled rapidly in the Niño 3.4 region from March into October 2016. During the past couple of weeks the surface water has began to modify, thus signally that the La Niña has stalled and will either transition to Neutral Conditions or - intensify. What will happen next?
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2016.
Click Images to Enlarge
Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.
It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.
GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the
GWO Products: ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1. La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
2. Hurricane Zone Forecasts
a. 4 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
b. 2 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
c. 1 year forecast - pick your zone "Consumer Package"
(available to the public on or before June 1 of the hurricane season)
3. Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)
3. Earthquake Predictions
a. Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
b. California Pilot Predictions issued April 25, 2012
4 . Climate Change eBook - " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "
5. Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers