The Next El Niño is Coming !

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              April 2021 into March 2023

 

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Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation   ( El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditions )

 

Updated 05 April 2021                        

 

GWO's  2-Year Prediction May 2021 into March 2023)  click here  

                             

1.    Overview of Current Conditions: Updated 05 April 2021

 

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

 

ENSO Neutral Conditions - through July 

El Niño Coming - find out when with GWO's 2-year prediction

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have modified during the past 4-weeks.  Although areas of colder than normal in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific are currently covering a fairly large area - the water is not as cold as it was a few months ago and is moderating in temperature due to the much warming than normal subsurface water spreading rapidly eastward.

 

What comes next? Find out with GWO's 2-year prediction - most accurate prediction available

 

2. GWO Analysis:   Updated 05 April 2021

     Current Conditions - Overview

     Tropical South Pacific Surface and Subsurface

      Tropical South Pacific Subsurface ocean temperatures

        (down to 250 meters)  - see figure 1 below

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last  7 weeks,  an area of colder than normal  subsurface water is moderating and has shrunk considerably in size - with mainly a pocket of cold subsurface water remaining in the Eastern Pacific. 

 

Warming than normal subsurface water is rapidly spreading eastward across the Tropical Pacific and is now entering the Eastern Pacific.  The warm subsurface water will continue moving east - eroding what is left of the colder pool of water.

 

Surface Water Temperatures:  Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific:  

Niño 3.4 Region - (where El Nino events typically form)

Updated 05 April 2021

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is still colder than normal during the past 4-weeks - but is warming in response to the moderation of the colder than normal subsurface water. 

 

Surface water temperatures  will continuing moderating during the period April through July.

Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End  

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years

                       

3.   NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC):   Updated  05 April 2021

La Niña is present.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average from the west-central to eastern Pacific Ocean. 

The tropical atmospheric circulation is consistent with La Niña.

There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).*

4.    Graphics - Current Conditions and Analysis

     Updated 05 April  2021  

SSTs Subsurface 29 March 2021.png

Click Image to Enlarge

    Pacific "Subsurface" Ocean    

      Temperature Anomalies

             Past 7 Weeks

     

   Panels - Top to Bottom

Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 07 February  (top graphic) to 31 March 2021  (bottom graphic). Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last  7 weeks,  an area of colder than normal  subsurface water is moderating and has shrunk considerably in size - with mainly a pocket of cold subsurface water remaining in the Eastern Pacific. 

 

Warming than normal subsurface water is rapidly spreading eastward across the Tropical Pacific and is now entering the Eastern Pacific.  The warm subsurface water will continue moving east - eroding what is left of the colder pool of water.

 

The La Nina has ended and conditions are now ENSO Neutral.  

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into October  of 2022.

 

Ocean temperature cycles typically persist for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.

Click Image to Enlarge

SurfaceTempAnomalies 31 March 2021.png

Click Image to Enlarge

2021 ENSO March 31 webpage.png

Click Images to Enlarge

          - Sample -

Subsurface Temperatures

    During a Delveloping

               El Nino

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

      Pacific Ocean Surface

  Temperature Anomalies

             Past 4 Weeks

   

     Panels - Top to Bottom

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 10 March to 21 March 2021.

Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have modified during the past 4-weeks.  Although areas of colder than normal in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific are currently covering a fairly large area - the water is not as cold as it was a few months ago and is moderating in temperature due to the much warming than normal subsurface water spreading rapidly eastward.

 

 The surface water will continue to modify during April - with ENSO Neutral Conditions taking over during April.

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into March  of 2023.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

 

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 9-years.

Nino Region 2.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

The graphic above shows the surface water temperatures in this region.  The dashed white line is the GWO Climate Pulse power spectrum, and the blue is the water temperatures (SSTs). Time period is 2008 through 31 March 2021.

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is still colder than normal during the past 4-weeks - but is warming in response to the moderation of the colder than normal subsurface water. 

 

Surface water temperatures  will continuing moderating during the period April through July.

For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur.

Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect ENSO Neutral conditions by mid-March to 01 April.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2021.

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

       Overview:   ENSO -  El Niño Southern Oscillation

 

The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional

weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.

El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface

water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.

This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier

conditions in other  regions.

 

La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase.  The

typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the

Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water

is much colder than normal.  This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite

of those conditions seen with an El Nino.

The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are

neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase.  Some regions of the world

also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.

 

  • 2-Year El Niño Prediction -  Accurate Look into the Future -  into October 2022                              more info...

 

  •    United States 2021  Winter Predictions -  (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)                            more info...

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  •   Expert Climate Change Speaker -   El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes                                           more info... 

 

  •   TV Interview - David Dilley -  Dangerous Climate Change

                                                              What the Government and Media has Not Told You  !

 

                                                                      Video link:  click here

Overview of GWO's Climate Research

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

 

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

 

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

 

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).  An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August.  An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009.  The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.

A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere.  This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred.  Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.

GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate".  GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.

A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans.  This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


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