Note:

   The "Basic" Zone Predictions are a 1 page Prediction - does not include a prediction discussion.

  

  The "Standard and Premium "

            Includes: Alerts during the season, climatology, detailed prediction discussion -

                              and much more

 

 

Example # 1  (Basic Zone Prediction)

 

               Definitions:  Prediction Categories ( expressed in percent and Liklihood )

             Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood

             that a predicted event will occur, or not occur. Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk:

             Low, Moderate and High.

 

                                                                      Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                                                   Category                Probability                       Event Liklihood

                                                   High Risk                60%  to  80%                     Expected to occur

                                                   Moderate Risk       40%  to  55%                     possible – but not likely

                                                   Low risk                    5%  to  35%                     not expected

 

                                                                                       Major Hurricane:

                                            *If a hurricane actually occurs – the risk it will be a major hurricane

                                                   Category                   Probability             

                                                          High Risk                   50%  to  70%            - if a hurricane occurs -

                                                   Moderate Risk         25%  to  45%            - if a hurricane occurs -

                                                   Low Risk                   less  than  25%         - if a hurricane occurs -

 

         Zone 1 – Prediction  (Basic Prediction Package)

          Metro NYC, Long Island and the Southern New England Coastline​              

                                                                                                                                                                   

​                                                                       

            2010 - Prediction  (issued in December prior to the 2010 season)

                                                                              

                                                                                                           Predicted Risk           Event Liklihood

         Hurricane conditions                                                        15 %  Low Risk                Not Expected to Occur

          Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs                      15 %  Low Risk                 Not Expected to Occur

          Tropical Storm conditions                                               15 %  Low Risk                 Not Expected to Occur

 

          Summary Discussion of Forecast:  Not available with the "Basic Zone Predictions

                                                                           Is available with the "Standard - Premium - Premium Plus Package".

 

 

 

Example # 2 

 

          Zone 1 – Prediction  (Basic Prediction Package)

          Metro NYC, Long Island and the Southern New England Coastline​ 

 

 

          2011- Prediction   (issued in December prior to the 2011 season)

 

                                                                                                           Predicted Risk           Event Liklihood

         Hurricane conditions                                                       60 %  High Risk                Expected to Occur (Hurricane Irene occured)
          Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs                      40 %  Moderate Risk      Possible - but not likely

          Tropical Storm conditions                                               65 %  High Risk                Expected to Occur

​ 

         Summary Discussion of Forecast:  Not available with the "Basic Zone Predictions

                                                                           Is available with the "Standard - Premium - Premium Plus Package".

 

         *Note.. Hurricane Irene was a major CAT 3 hurricane and did pass right over eastern North Carolina in 2011.

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