Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Tropical Cyclone Risk Probability Predictions
East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States
For
2011
Issued - January 1, 2011
This Product is For Purchaser’s Internal Use Only
Distribution is strictly forbidden by GWO
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
4423 SE 14th Street
Ocala, Florida 34480 USA
Email: dilley@GlobalWeatherOscillations.com
www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com
2011 Hurricane Season Prediction
Climate Pulse Technology Model by GWO
Risk Prediction Definitions:
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model assigns a risk probability
expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.
Definitions: Risk Prediction
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.
Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk: Low, Moderate and High.
Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:
Category Probability Prospect
High Risk 60% to 80% likely to occur
Moderate Risk 40% to 55% possible – but not likely
Low risk 5% to 35% not expected
Major Hurricane Risk:
If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane
Category Probability
High Risk 50% to 70% (if a hurricane occurs)
Moderate Risk 25% to 45% (if a hurricane occurs)
Low Risk less than 25% (if a hurricane occurs)
In the Predictions Below –
The predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that
specific year to the long-term average annual risk.
Prediction: For 2011
Zone 2
New York City Southward - New Jersey - Delaware - Maryland - to the Chesapeak Bay
Predicted Event Expected Average Annual
Risk Risk
2011 Hurricane conditions 60 % High expected to occur 8 %
Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs 45 % High not expected 3 %
Tropical Storm conditions 70 % High expected to occur 28 %
Note: Hurricane Irene hugged the Deleware and New Jersey Coast
Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey in 2012
* Note: when GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.
Analysis and Summary
This zone is entering one of the strongest and most active Climate Pulse hurricane cycles for the northeast region in the past 50 to 75 years.
Analysis of the GWO Climate Pulse Technology Model (GWO-CPTM) indicates that this zone has a high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions in 2011. Storm track for 2011 is expected to bring hurricanes traveling from south to north to near Cape Hatteras and then likely continuing up the coast toward Long Island, with the area experiencing either a strong tropical storm or hurricane in 2011.