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               GlobalWeatherCycles.com    GlobalWetherOscillations.com      Tampa Florida - Ocala Florida USA

Actual GWO Predictions 

                                

South Florida Zones

1.  Zone 7 - Marco Island through the Keys

2.  Zone 8 - West Coast Florida -

Ft Myers to Ceday Key

                                

Issued February 01, 2017 

 

1.   Zone 7 Extreme South Florida Peninsula -       

South of a line - Miami to Marco Island including the Keys

 

 2017 Prediction:  Issued February 01 2017

 

GWO predicts the current quiet period will finally end during the 2017 season as this zone enters the strongest and most active hurricane cycle since the period from 1945 to 1950 (65-70 years ago).

 

During this 6-year active period from 1945 to 1950, five out of the 6 years had hurricanes, and some years had multiple landfalls.  There were a total of 8 hurricanes during this 6 year period, and 6 of the 8 hurricanes were major Category 3 to 5 hurricanes.

 

The GWO-Climate Pulse Model is tracking 4 historical analog years which are like the upcoming

2017 season. The 4 analog years had a total of 6 hurricanes making landfall in this zone. 

Three of the 6 landfalls were Major hurricanes, with 2 of them being strong Category 4 hurricanes. 

There were also two category 3 hurricanes – and only one hurricane was a Category 1.

 

Bottom Line:  This zone has entered the most active and dangerous cycle in 65 to 70 years.

About 70% of the hurricanes that strike this zone are Major Hurricanes –

and GWO expects hurricane and tropical storm conditions in this zone during the 2017 season, and there is a high risk for multiple landfalls

 

 

The analog years listed below indicate that when a hurricane strikes -

there is about a 75 percent likelihood it will be a Category 2 or greater, and a 65 percent likelihood it will be a major Category 3 or greater.  

GWO is assigning a high risk for hurricane conditions in 2017.

 

     

Historical Climate Pulse Analog Years Most Similar to the 2017 Season:      

 

In 1964   This zone was hit by two hurricanes.

             

The first was the Category 2 Hurricane Cleo that moved northward from

Cuba and over the entire Florida east coast from August 27th and 28th. 

The second was Category 3 Isbell crossing South Florida from the

southwest to northeast - exiting near Homestead and Miami on October 25th.

In 1950   Category 4 Hurricane King moved north making landfall near Homestead on

October 18th then weakened rapidly to a Category 1 as it moved north over

Orlando, Ocala and Gainesville – becoming a Tropical Storm in south central Georgia.

In 1928  Category 2 hurricane moved from southeast to northwest making landfall

between Miami and Cape Canaveral early in August, possibly causing

hurricane conditions in the extreme north portion of this zone.

A second hurricane – a Major Category 4 made landfall near Miami in

mid- September.

In 1924  Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Marco Island (which is on the

border of this zone and the zone to the south) on October 22nd and then

moved east as a category 1 to just south of Miami.

In 1910   Category 4 made a loop near the western tip of Cuba and then moved

northeast across the outer Keys to near Tampa and then weakened to a

Category 1 as it moved northeast (up now Interstate 75) and further

weakening to a tropical storm near Ocala Florida in mid-October.

Bottom Line:  This zone has entered the most active and dangerous cycle in 65 to 70 years.

About 70% of the hurricanes that strike this zone are Major Hurricanes –

and GWO expects hurricane and tropical storm conditions in this zone during the 2017 season,

and there is a high risk for multiple landfalls

 

 

Issued February 01, 2017 

 

Zone 8 - West Coast of Florida  Prediction Issued Feb. 01

Marco Island North - Including Naples, Sarasota, Tampa

to a Point Halfway Between Tallahassee and  Cedar Key  

 

Prediction:  The GWO Climate Pulse Technology - hurricane tracking model - indicates this zone is now in the most active and dangerous hurricane cycle in 70 years.  The last highly active period was from 1941 to 1950.  During this 10-year period, 12 hurricanes either caused strong tropical storm conditions or hurricane conditions in this zone. Only 2 out of the 10 years did not have hurricane or very strong tropical storm conditions within this zone, and 6 years saw major hurricanes influence this zone.

The 2017 season has a high risk for hurricane conditions within the zone, and a high risk for a major hurricane near the zone – the highest risk for Major Hurricane conditions  is south of Tampa, but there is a moderate to high risk for hurricane conditions north of Tampa

 

Historical Analog Years for 2017 indicate a strong possibility for a major hurricane moving across the Keys or the Southern tip of the Peninsula – analog years (colored in orange in the Analog Years) also indicate that a major impact hurricane could move north from the Keys up through the middle of the state.

 

 Bottom Line: This zone is now in a very active and extremely dangerous hurricane cycle, likely the worst since the period from 1941 to 1950. GWO expects that nearly 60% of the hurricanes striking or skirting very close to this zone will be Major Hurricanes.  Most of the hurricanes will move across the keys and southern tip of the Florida Peninsula just south of this zone – but hurricane conditions will very likely extend northward into the Sarasota to Tampa area.  GWO predicts this zone will be at high risk for at least hurricane causing hurricane conditions in this zone.  Analog years (colored in orange in the Analog Years) also indicate that a major impact hurricane could move north from the Keys up through the middle of the state in 2017.

 

 

Historical Climate Pulse Analog Years Most Similar to the 2017 Season:

 

In 1960   Category 4 Hurricane Donna moved northwest across the Keys on

September 10th, then north over Tampa – then northeast as a

Category 3 across the Ocala area becoming a Category 2 near Jacksonville

and continuing northeast to New England.

In 1924   A Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Marco Island (which is on the

border of this zone and the zone to the south) on October 22nd and

then moved east as a category 1 to just south of Miami.

In 1950  Category 4 Hurricane King moved north making landfall near Homestead on

October 18th then weakened rapidly to a Category 1 as it moved north over

Orlando, Ocala and Gainesville – becoming a Tropical Storm in south central

Georgia.

In 1946  Category 4 made a loop near the western tip of Cuba and then

moved northeast across the outer Keys to near Tampa and then weakened

to a Category 1 as it moved northeast (up now Interstate 75) and further

weakening to a tropical storm near Ocala Florida in mid October.

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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