Actual GWO Predictions
South Florida Zones
1. Zone 7 - Marco Island through the Keys
2. Zone 8 - West Coast Florida -
Ft Myers to Ceday Key
Issued February 01, 2017
1. Zone 7 Extreme South Florida Peninsula -
South of a line - Miami to Marco Island including the Keys
2017 Prediction: Issued February 01 2017
GWO predicts the current quiet period will finally end during the 2017 season as this zone enters the strongest and most active hurricane cycle since the period from 1945 to 1950 (65-70 years ago).
During this 6-year active period from 1945 to 1950, five out of the 6 years had hurricanes, and some years had multiple landfalls. There were a total of 8 hurricanes during this 6 year period, and 6 of the 8 hurricanes were major Category 3 to 5 hurricanes.
The GWO-Climate Pulse Model is tracking 4 historical analog years which are like the upcoming
2017 season. The 4 analog years had a total of 6 hurricanes making landfall in this zone.
Three of the 6 landfalls were Major hurricanes, with 2 of them being strong Category 4 hurricanes.
There were also two category 3 hurricanes – and only one hurricane was a Category 1.
Bottom Line: This zone has entered the most active and dangerous cycle in 65 to 70 years.
About 70% of the hurricanes that strike this zone are Major Hurricanes –
and GWO expects hurricane and tropical storm conditions in this zone during the 2017 season, and there is a high risk for multiple landfalls
The analog years listed below indicate that when a hurricane strikes -
there is about a 75 percent likelihood it will be a Category 2 or greater, and a 65 percent likelihood it will be a major Category 3 or greater.
GWO is assigning a high risk for hurricane conditions in 2017.
Historical Climate Pulse Analog Years Most Similar to the 2017 Season:
In 1964 This zone was hit by two hurricanes.
The first was the Category 2 Hurricane Cleo that moved northward from
Cuba and over the entire Florida east coast from August 27th and 28th.
The second was Category 3 Isbell crossing South Florida from the
southwest to northeast - exiting near Homestead and Miami on October 25th.
In 1950 Category 4 Hurricane King moved north making landfall near Homestead on
October 18th then weakened rapidly to a Category 1 as it moved north over
Orlando, Ocala and Gainesville – becoming a Tropical Storm in south central Georgia.
In 1928 Category 2 hurricane moved from southeast to northwest making landfall
between Miami and Cape Canaveral early in August, possibly causing
hurricane conditions in the extreme north portion of this zone.
A second hurricane – a Major Category 4 made landfall near Miami in
mid- September.
In 1924 Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Marco Island (which is on the
border of this zone and the zone to the south) on October 22nd and then
moved east as a category 1 to just south of Miami.
In 1910 Category 4 made a loop near the western tip of Cuba and then moved
northeast across the outer Keys to near Tampa and then weakened to a
Category 1 as it moved northeast (up now Interstate 75) and further
weakening to a tropical storm near Ocala Florida in mid-October.
Bottom Line: This zone has entered the most active and dangerous cycle in 65 to 70 years.
About 70% of the hurricanes that strike this zone are Major Hurricanes –
and GWO expects hurricane and tropical storm conditions in this zone during the 2017 season,
and there is a high risk for multiple landfalls
Issued February 01, 2017
Zone 8 - West Coast of Florida Prediction Issued Feb. 01
Marco Island North - Including Naples, Sarasota, Tampa
to a Point Halfway Between Tallahassee and Cedar Key
Prediction: The GWO Climate Pulse Technology - hurricane tracking model - indicates this zone is now in the most active and dangerous hurricane cycle in 70 years. The last highly active period was from 1941 to 1950. During this 10-year period, 12 hurricanes either caused strong tropical storm conditions or hurricane conditions in this zone. Only 2 out of the 10 years did not have hurricane or very strong tropical storm conditions within this zone, and 6 years saw major hurricanes influence this zone.
The 2017 season has a high risk for hurricane conditions within the zone, and a high risk for a major hurricane near the zone – the highest risk for Major Hurricane conditions is south of Tampa, but there is a moderate to high risk for hurricane conditions north of Tampa.
Historical Analog Years for 2017 indicate a strong possibility for a major hurricane moving across the Keys or the Southern tip of the Peninsula – analog years (colored in orange in the Analog Years) also indicate that a major impact hurricane could move north from the Keys up through the middle of the state.
Bottom Line: This zone is now in a very active and extremely dangerous hurricane cycle, likely the worst since the period from 1941 to 1950. GWO expects that nearly 60% of the hurricanes striking or skirting very close to this zone will be Major Hurricanes. Most of the hurricanes will move across the keys and southern tip of the Florida Peninsula just south of this zone – but hurricane conditions will very likely extend northward into the Sarasota to Tampa area. GWO predicts this zone will be at high risk for at least hurricane causing hurricane conditions in this zone. Analog years (colored in orange in the Analog Years) also indicate that a major impact hurricane could move north from the Keys up through the middle of the state in 2017.
Historical Climate Pulse Analog Years Most Similar to the 2017 Season:
In 1960 Category 4 Hurricane Donna moved northwest across the Keys on
September 10th, then north over Tampa – then northeast as a
Category 3 across the Ocala area becoming a Category 2 near Jacksonville
and continuing northeast to New England.
In 1924 A Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Marco Island (which is on the
border of this zone and the zone to the south) on October 22nd and
then moved east as a category 1 to just south of Miami.
In 1950 Category 4 Hurricane King moved north making landfall near Homestead on
October 18th then weakened rapidly to a Category 1 as it moved north over
Orlando, Ocala and Gainesville – becoming a Tropical Storm in south central
Georgia.
In 1946 Category 4 made a loop near the western tip of Cuba and then
moved northeast across the outer Keys to near Tampa and then weakened
to a Category 1 as it moved northeast (up now Interstate 75) and further
weakening to a tropical storm near Ocala Florida in mid October.