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La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño



Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) 

1 to 4 Years into the Future  


​Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO) was formed with the specific understanding that almost all climate and weather events occur in cycles.  GWO specializes in climate cycles and is the only Company with PFM technology for producing accurate predictions 4 years into the future, and climate change cycles well beyond 100 years.

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate"  to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring  climate oscillations.  It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño.



What is:  ENSO - El Niño - La Niña ? 

The tropical Pacific Ocean experiences temperature oscillations called the "ENSO" El Niño Southern Oscillation.  There are actually three cycles of the ENSO, the tropical "cold water" phase called the La Niña, the "warm water" phase called the El Niño, and the "Neutral Conditions" phase that is halfway between a La Niña and El Niño).


The Neutral Phase is characterized by a pool of cold water in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (see Figure 1).  The cold water stabilizes the atmosphere and inhibits convection which leads to the formation of clouds and eventually rainfall or monsoonal conditions.  Instead there is a lack of clouds, high atmospheric pressure and tranquil weather conditions.
























                       Figure 1 - shows the warm pool of water over the Eastern pacific and the piled

                       up pool of very warm water over the Western Pacific, and monsoonal conditions.



Counter clockwise atmospheric circulation around the dominating high pressure center pushes the surface water westward.  As the easterly winds push the surface water, it warms and eventually piles up as a warm pool of water over the Western Pacific. This warm pool of water acts like a tea kettle, with rising moist steamy air rising into the atmosphere above the very warm ocean waters.  This causes considerable convective activity in the atmosphere, with this causing monsoon conditions.

The La Niña which in Spanish means "the girl" is the opposite or counterpart of the El Niño which means "little boy" and refers to "Chirst Child".   The La Niña is characterized by strong cooling of the ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (Figure 2), thus even a colder phase than the typical neutral conditions. This cooling alters the formation of regional storms, atmospheric circulation and atmospheric water vapor around the world.


​​As the GWO-PFM Natural Climate Pulse cycle kicks the tropical high pressure system from its normal location in the Eastern pacific, the easterly trade winds suddenly shift direction to westerly. This shift allows the very warm pool of water near Australia to move east toward South America as an El Niño (see Figure 3). ​


                        Figure 3 - shows the El Nino phase.  Warm water has rushed eastward replacing the

                        cold pool of water over the Eastern Pacific. This changes the atmospheric conditions

                        over the northern hemisphere and causes high altitude wind shear across the Gulf

                        of Mexico and Atlantic.

Finally the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes very warm (figure 1), with this warm water and low pressure now over the Eastern Pacific disrupts normal atmospheric weather patterns around the world, causing some areas to have stronger than normal storms, and some areas less stormy weather (see Section 2 for more information).  It also causes changes in ocean currents and temperatures, thus disrupting commercial fishing.


The El Niño which is the opposite of the La Niña is characterized by strong warming of the central
South Pacific Ocean waters, with this warming causing changes in the atmospheric circulation in
this area.  The changes are so dramatic;  it causes regional changes in atmospheric circulation
and storm development around the globe.

When it comes to Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes, the La Niña and the neutral stage enhances
the hurricane season with favorable upper level atmospheric winds.  When an El Niño forms, the
general atmospheric circulation becomes less favorable for tropical storms as winds at high
altitude become strong westerly instead of a more easterly light circulation.  This causes shear in
the atmosphere, which is basically lower level easterly winds being sheared by strong upper level
westerly winds.  Thus when and El Niño occurs, shearing inhibits the formation of tropical cyclones
such as hurricanes and tropical storms.​

Figure 2 - Shows Tropical Pacific cold water along the equator during the La Nina phase.

Figure 1 - Shows very warm water in the central and eastern Pacific during an El Nino.

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