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Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation   ( El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditions )

 

Updated 24 November 2021                        

 

     GWO's  2-Year Prediction into October 2023  click here

                             

1.    Overview of Current Conditions: Updated 24 November 2021

 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

 

 NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations

                Weak La Niña in Place into April 2022

 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

                Weakening La Niña - Transitioning to Neutral

                El Niño Follows  

 Discussion:

As noted in the time series (see graphics below - from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical Pacific surface water temperatures are cooler than normal across most of the Equatorial Tropical Pacific -but the temperatures have moderated in intensity and coverage (bottom panel).

 

The weakening of the colder than normal surface water is in response to the next ClimatePulse Cycle and the warmer than normal subsurface water spreading eastward from the Western Pacific into the Central Pacific.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

Find out when the Next El Niño will occur

GWO's  2-Year Prediction into October 2023)  click here

2. GWO Analysis:   Updated 24 November 2021

     Current Conditions - Overview

     Weak La Niña is weakening - will transition to ENSO Neutral

     

     Tropical Pacific Subsurface ocean temperatures

       (down to 250 meters)  - see figure 1 below

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  The Coldest Core area of the colder than normal subsurface water has moved eastward and moderated during the past 7 weeks.  It will continue eastward reaching the South America coastal area by late December 2021.  This will essentially signal the ending the the current weak La Niña.

 

At the same time an area of warmer than normal subsurface water is slowly intensifying in the Western Pacific and slowly moving eastward underneath the colder water above.  This area has now reached the Central Portion of the Pacific and will continue eastward into the Eastern Pacific by January 7.  This will erode the colder water above and end the weak La Nina.

 

 

Surface Water Temperatures:  Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific:  

Niño 3.4 Region - (where El Nino events typically form)

Updated 24 November 2021

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -  

Equatorial Tropical Pacific surface water temperatures have are cooler than normal across most of the Equatorial Tropical Pacific -but the temperatures have moderated in intensity and coverage (bottom panel).

 

The weakening of the colder than normal surface water is in response to the next ClimatePulse Cycle. and the warmer than normal subsurface water spreading eastward from the Western Pacific into the Central Pacific.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End  

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years

                       

3.   NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC):   Updated 24 November 2021

La Niña is present.

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.

The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions.

La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May).

4.    Graphics - Current Conditions and Analysis

     Updated 24 November 2021  

SSTs Subsurface 24 November 2021.png
2021 ENSO November 24  webpage.png
2021 ENSO November 24 webpage.png

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Images to Enlarge

         Pacific "Subsurface"

              Ocean Water  

    Temperature Anomalies

Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 05 October 2021  (top graphic) to 24 November 2021. Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  The Coldest Core area of the colder than normal subsurface water has moved eastward and moderated during the past 7 weeks.  It will continue eastward reaching the South America coastal area by late December 2021.  This will essentially signal the ending the the current weak La Niña.

 

At the same time an area of warmer than normal subsurface water is slowlly intensifying in the Western Pacific and slowly moving eastward underneath the colder water above.  This area has now reached the Central Portion of the Pacific and will continue eastward into the Eastern Pacific by January 7.  This will erode the colder water above and end the weak La Nina.

 

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from cooling and then back to warming.  

Weak ENSO La Nina Conditions are now in place and will continue for a couple months.  

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur from November 2021 into October 2023 - including the next El Nino.

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.

          - Sample -

Subsurface Temperatures

    During a Delveloping

               El Nino

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

      Pacific Ocean Surface

  Temperature Anomalies

             Past 4 Weeks

   

     Panels - Top to Bottom

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 03 November to 24 November.  

Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) -   Equatorial Tropical Pacific surface water temperatures have are cooler than normal across most of the Equatorial Tropical Pacific -but the temperatures have moderated in intensity and coverage (bottom panel).

 

The weakening of the colder than normal surface water is in response to the next ClimatePulse Cycle. and the warmer than normal subsurface water spreading eastward from the Western Pacific into the Central Pacific.

 

Warmer than normal subsurface water will continue moving eastward and intensify during the next few months and erode the colder.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

The ocean temperatures are ENSO Neutral Conditions  due to the cooler ocean water being only slightly cooler than the long-term average.

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into August of 2023.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

Nino Region 2.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is colder than normal and reflects a weak La Nina during the past 4-weeks ending  on 10 November 2021.

 

The surface water in this region has stabilized and the La Nina has reached its peak and is will now begin to weaken and become ENSO Neutral Conditions in December.

 

The ocean temperatures typically for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur.

Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect ENSO Neutral conditions.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2021.

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

       Overview:   ENSO -  El Niño Southern Oscillation

 

The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional

weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.

El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface

water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.

This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier

conditions in other  regions.

 

La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase.  The

typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the

Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water

is much colder than normal.  This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite

of those conditions seen with an El Nino.

The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are

neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase.  Some regions of the world

also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.

 

  • 2-Year El Niño Prediction -  Accurate Look into the Future -  into October 2022                              more info...

 

  •    United States 2021  Winter Predictions -  (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)                            more info...

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  •   Expert Climate Change Speaker -   El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes                                           more info... 

 

  •   TV Interview - David Dilley -  Dangerous Climate Change

                                                              What the Government and Media has Not Told You  !

 

                                                                      Video link:  click here

Overview of GWO's Climate Research

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

 

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

 

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

 

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).  An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August.  An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009.  The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.

A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere.  This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred.  Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.

GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate".  GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.

A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans.  This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


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