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Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation   ( El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditions )

 

Updated 09 May 2022                        

 

GWO's  2-Year Prediction June 2022 into June 2024  click here

                             

 

                                               _____________________________

                 

Expert Analysis and Predictions

 

      Updated 09 May 2022

1.   Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)  

La Niña - Transitioning to Neutral  by Late June 2022

Discussion:  Updated 09 May 2022

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  during the past 4-weeks the area of the colder than normal surface water has maintained itself and La Nina conditions still persist.

 

The  La Nina will continue into June - then major changes will occur during June as the warm subsurface water continues to move eastward across the Central Pacific.  This will erode the colder water above and ENSO Neutral Conditions should begin near late June.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

GWO's  2-Year Prediction into June 2024  click here

 Analysis:  Current Conditions and Analysis

                     Updated09 May 2022

   

      a.    Tropical Pacific Subsurface ocean temperatures 

            (down to 250 meters)  - see figure 1 below

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  The area of colder than normal subsurface water ( blue) intensified in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during the past two months -  this will continue the La Nina into early June.

At the same time - an area of much warmer than normal subsurface water has intensified and spread eastward into West-Central Tropical Pacific and is getting poised to move eastward and erode the area of colder than normal subsurface water above. 

The warmer than normal subsurface water will continue moving east with rapid decay of  the colder water above during June - and thus transition the La Nina to ENSO Neutral in mid to late June.

b.   Surface Water Temperatures:  Niño 3.4 Region

            (where El Nino events typically form)

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - has moderated during the past 4-weeks, and then cooled slightly during the past week in response to colder than normal subsurface water.  The ocean temperatures will likely remain steady for the next several weeks and then begin warming around mid to late June as conditions transition to ENSO Neutral.

 

The Nino Region 2.4 water temperatures will continue moderating during  June and beyond with ENSO Neutral Conditions developing around late June of 2022.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End  

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years

2.    NOAA - Climate Prediction

Overview of Current Conditions:

       Updated 09 May 2022

La Niña is present

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.

The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña.

La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the fall.

                       

 

3.    Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)

                       

  Current Conditions and Analysis

Updated 09 May 2022  

 

Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End  

GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years 

SSTs 2022 Subsurface 03 May.png

Click Image to Enlarge

         Pacific "Subsurface"

              Ocean Water  

    Temperature Anomalies

Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 14 March 2022  (top graphic) to 04 May 2022. Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.

 

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  The area of colder than normal subsurface water ( blue) intensified in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during the past two months -  this will continue the La Nina into early June.

At the same time - an area of much warmer than normal subsurface water has intensified and spread eastward into West-Central Tropical Pacific and is getting poised to move eastward and erode the area of colder than normal subsurface water above. 

The warmer than normal subsurface water will continue moving east with rapid decay of  the colder water above during June - and thus transition the La Nina to ENSO Neutral in mid to late June.

 

Cycles in the ocean typically go through phases that last about 3-months.  Thus the intensification of colder subsurface water will begin to give way to the newly intensification of the warm area of subsurface water.  This will begin during the next week or two and end the La Nina in May as the warmer subsurface water spreads eastward,

 

Find out when the La Nina will transition to El Nino with GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction.

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from cooling and then back to warming.  

Weak ENSO La Nina Conditions are now in place and will continue for a couple months.  

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur from November 2021 into October 2023 - including the next El Nino.

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.

Surface Tempeatures Anomalies 09 May. 2022.png

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge

          - Sample -

Subsurface Temperatures

    During a Delveloping

               El Nino

 

 Panels - Top to Bottom

The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño.  Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.

 

For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America.  Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.  

 

Find Out When the next

El Niño will begin - and end

 

 click here  for GWO's

2-year prediction.

 

 

 

 

 

      Pacific Ocean Surface

  Temperature Anomalies

             Past 4 Weeks

   

     Panels - Top to Bottom

 

The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 13 April 2022 to 04 May 2022.

Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.

As noted in the time series (from top to bottom),  during the past 4-weeks the area of the colder than normal surface water has maintained itself and La Nina conditions still persist.

 

The  La Nina will continue into June - then major changes will occur during June as the warm subsurface water continues to move eastward across the Central Pacific.  This will erode the colder water above and ENSO Neutral Conditions should begin near late June.

 

An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

The ocean temperatures are ENSO Neutral Conditions  due to the cooler ocean water being only slightly cooler than the long-term average.

 

GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into August of 2023.

 

Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.

Click here for GWO's 2-year

predictions

 

The most accurate prediction

by any organization

the past 10-years.

2022 ENSO May 04 webpage.png

Click Images to Enlarge

Nino Region 2.4

East Central Tropical Pacific

Surface" Ocean Temperatures

 

El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific.  This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.

 

The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - has moderated during the past 4-weeks, and then cooled slightly during the past week in response to colder than normal subsurface water.  The ocean temperatures will likely remain steady for the next several weeks and then begin warming around mid to late June as conditions transition to ENSO Neutral.

 

The Nino Region 2.4 water temperatures will continue moderating during  June and beyond with ENSO Neutral Conditions developing around late June of 2022.

 

The ocean temperatures typically for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.  

 

For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur.

Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect ENSO Neutral conditions.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.

 

GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2021.

Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4

Typical Warm Phase El Niño

Equatorial South Pacific Ocean

             El Niño                              La Niña

        Warm Phase                      Cold Phase

     Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures

       Overview:   ENSO -  El Niño Southern Oscillation

 

The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional

weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.

El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface

water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.

This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier

conditions in other  regions.

 

La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase.  The

typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the

Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water

is much colder than normal.  This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite

of those conditions seen with an El Nino.

The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are

neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase.  Some regions of the world

also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.

 

  • 2-Year El Niño Prediction -  Accurate Look into the Future -  into October 2022                              more info...

 

  •    United States 2021  Winter Predictions -  (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures)                            more info...

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  •   Expert Climate Change Speaker -   El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes                                           more info... 

 

  •   TV Interview - David Dilley -  Dangerous Climate Change

                                                              What the Government and Media has Not Told You  !

 

                                                                      Video link:  click here

Overview of GWO's Climate Research

Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

 

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

 

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

 

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1).  An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August.  An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009.  The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.

A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere.  This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred.  Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.

GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate".  GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.

A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse.  This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans.  This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


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