1. Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
2. Acquire GWO's 2-year Prediction more info here
January 2020 into January 2022
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3. Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:
ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation Includes: El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditions
Updated 13 January 2020
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) - Prediction and Analyses:
GWO's 2-Year Prediction January 2019 into January 2022) click here
GWO Analysis: ENSO Netural Conditions in Place
As predicted by GWO, the weak El Niño of early 2019 formed in January and then dissipated in
June.
Subsurface temperatures are now warming across much of the Tropical South Pacific - could another weak El Niño or Stronger El Niño form during the same periods as it did in 2019?
(see GWO's 2-year predictions for a complete forecast)
ENSO Neutral Conditions are now in place. This means that neither El Niño or La Niña-
conditions are occurring - it is halfway between the 2 events.
The large area of above normal warm subsurface water has intensified in the Western Tropical
South Pacific and spread eastward. Surface water temperatures will begin reflecting the warmer
subsurface water and again warm during the next few months.
What comes next?. Find out with GWO's 2-year prediction - most accurate prediction available.
Subsurface Water Temperatures: Updated 13 January 2020
Niño 3.4 Region (where El Nino events typically form)
The subsurface and surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically
occurs has warmed significantly during the past few weeks, and will likely continue
warming for a few more weeks - with some of the warm subsurface water upwelling
to the surface.
Subsurface ocean temperatures (down to 250 meters): Updated 13 January 2020
During the last 7 weeks, an area of above normal warm subsurface water has increased in size
and intensity during the past 7 weeks, and has spread to the east - but mostly staying in the
subsurface.
We have seen this same occurrence about 4 times during the past 16 months - and one warming
did result in a very weak El Niño about this same time last year (2019).
Surface Water Temperatures: Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Updated 13 January 2020
Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures are continuing above normal in the
Western and Central Pacific - this reflects the warmer than normal subsurface water below.
Surface ocean temperatures have cooled some in the Eastern portion of the Pacific, but will likely
warm some during the next few weeks - a 3 month cycle.
GWO's 2 year prediction click here
GWO's 2-year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place
Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End - GWO's 2- year prediction - the most accurate and
Consistent of any organization the past 10 years ... more info What You Can Expect next 2 - Years
NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC): Updated 13 January 2020
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the western and
central Pacific Ocean and are below average in the eastern Pacific.
The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with
ENSO-neutral.
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring 2020
with a (60% chance), Neutral Conditions are favored through the summer 2020
with a (50% chance)
Current Conditions and Analysis - 13 January 2020
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Images to Enlarge
Pacific "Subsurface" Ocean
Temperature Anomalies
Past 7 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 19 November 2019 (top graphic) to 08 January 2020 (bottom graphic). Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - during the last 7 weeks, an area of above normal warm subsurface water has increased in size and intensity during the past 7 weeks, and has spread to the east - but mostly staying in the subsurface.
We have seen this same occurrence about 4 times during the past 16 months - and one warming did result in a very weak El Nino about this same time last year (2019).
Ocean temperature cycles typically persist for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling.
ENSO Neutral Conditions are dominating - but for how long?. GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into September of 2021.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
T
he Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 16 December 2019 to 08 January 2020.
Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures are continuing above normal in the Western and Central Pacific - this reflects the warmer than normal subsurface water below.
Surface ocean temperatures have cooled some in the Eastern portion of the Pacific, but will likely warm some during the next few weeks - a 3 month cycle.
El Niño conditions typically occur in association with warm water across the East-Central and/or Eastern tropical Pacific. However, the water is not warm enough and reflects ENSO Neutral Conditions.
Thus - ENSO Neutral Conditions are in place.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 9-years.
Nino Region 2.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The graphic above shows the surface water temperatures in this region. The dashed white line is the GWO Climate Pulse power spectrum, and the blue is the water temperatures (SSTs). Time period is 2008 through 08 January 2020.
The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically occurs has cooled during the past couple of months - with some areas of colder than normal surface water across the Eastern Pacific.
Expect surface temperatures to warm in this region during the next 30 days.
Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect Neutral Conditions during the next few months.
For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur.
As of 13 January 2020 - ENSO Neutral Conditions are in place.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year pediction
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2020.
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2-Year El Niño Prediction - Accurate Look into the Future - into January 2022 more info...
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United States 2020 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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British Isles and Europe 20209 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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Expert Climate Change Speaker - El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes more info...
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TV Interview - David Dilley - Dangerous Climate Change in 2020
What the Government and Media has Not Told You !
Video link: click here
Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.
It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.
GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the
GWO Products: ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1. La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
2. Hurricane Zone Forecasts
a. 2 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
c. 1 year forecast - pick your zone "Standard Package"
3. Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)
3. Earthquake Predictions
a. Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
4 . Climate Change eBook - " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "
5. Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers