When Will the Next El Niño Come !
New 2-Year Prediction - Issued 07 June
August 2021 into July 2023
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Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:
ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation ( El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditions )
Updated 26 July 2021
GWO's 2-Year Prediction August 2021 into July 2023) click here
1. Overview of Current Conditions: Updated 26 July 2021
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
ENSO Neutral Conditions - Are in Place - El Niño Follows Later
Next El Niño Coming - find out when with GWO's 2-year prediction
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), an area of warmer than normal subsurface water (top panel) stretched from west to east across the Tropical Pacific on 02 June - and during the following 7 weeks the warm subsurface water moderated and cooled.
At the same time, a colder than normal pool of subsurface water has intensified (bottom panel) in the Central and Eastern Tropical South Pacific.
A Transition to Warmer Ocean Water this Winter - there will not be a La Nina
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from cooling and then back to warming.
Find out when the Next El Nino will occur
GWO's 2-Year Prediction August 2021 into July 2023) click here
2. GWO Analysis: Updated 26 July 2021
Current Conditions - Overview
Tropical South Pacific Surface and Subsurface
Tropical South Pacific Subsurface ocean temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), an area of warmer than normal subsurface water (top panel) stretched from west to east across the Tropical Pacific on 02 June - and during the following 7 weeks the warm subsurface water moderated and cooled.
At the same time, a colder than normal pool of subsurface water has intensified (bottom panel) in the Central and Eastern Tropical South Pacific.
Surface Water Temperatures: Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific:
Niño 3.4 Region - (where El Nino events typically form)
Updated 26 July 2021
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have cooled during the past 4 weeks in response to colder than normal subsurface water. Surface water temperatures are now near normal to a little below normal across the entire Tropical South Pacific.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
Find out when El Niño events will Begin and End
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC): Updated 26 July 2021
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
Equatorial sea surface Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January).
4. Graphics - Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 26 July 2021
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Pacific "Subsurface" Ocean
Temperature Anomalies
Past 7 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
Panels above show the Tropical South Pacific subsurface water temperature during the 7 weeks from 02 June 2021 (top graphic) to 22 July 2021. Cold subsurface water is noted as blue - warm is orange to red.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom), an area of warmer than normal subsurface water (top panel) stretched from west to east across the Tropical Pacific on 02 June - and during the following 7 weeks the warm subsurface water moderated and cooled.
At the same time, a colder than normal pool of subsurface water has intensified (bottom panel) in the Central and Eastern Tropical South Pacific.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from cooling and then back to warming.
ENSO Conditions are now Neutral and will continue neutral for several months.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur from July 2021 into July 2023 - including the next El Nino.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific - and then expand eastward across the Central Tropical Pacific and finally to near South America. Once the warm subsurface water expands to the Eastern Pacific, it up-wells to the surface (see the 3-panel graphic to the right that shows the formation of the 2015 El Niño.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
he Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 30 June to 21 July 2021.
Colors denote above normal warm water, blue is colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series (from top to bottom) - Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have cooled during the past 4 weeks in response to colder than normal subsurface water. Surface water temperatures are now near normal to a little below normal across the entire Tropical South Pacific.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
The ocean temperatures are ENSO Neutral Conditions due to the cooler ocean water being only slightly cooler than the long-term average.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 9-years.
Nino Region 2.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The surface water in the region Niño 3.4 where an El Niño typically forms - is near normal during the past 4-weeks ending on 21 July 2021 - although the surface water has cooled slightly in response to the moderation (cooling) of the subsurface water,
GWO expected that the surface water temperature would stabilize and and even cool a little during the next few months - then begin warming again.
The ocean temperatures typically for 2 or 3 months and then change to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
For a moderate El Niño to form - there must be dramatic warming within the Niño 3.4 Region - and there are no indications that this will occur.
Atmospheric El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will reflect ENSO Neutral conditions.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2021.
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
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2-Year El Niño Prediction - Accurate Look into the Future - into October 2022 more info...
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United States 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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British Isles and Europe 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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Expert Climate Change Speaker - El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes more info...
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TV Interview - David Dilley - Dangerous Climate Change
What the Government and Media has Not Told You !
Video link: click here
Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.
It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.
GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the
GWO Products: ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1. La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
2. Hurricane Zone Forecasts
a. 2 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
c. 1 year forecast - pick your zone "Standard Package"
3. Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)
3. Earthquake Predictions
a. Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
4 . Climate Change eBook - " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "
5. Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers