2-Year Prediction
March 2024 into March 2026
( coming late January )
Dramatic Weather and Climate Changes
First El Nino to Form off of Peru Since Prior to 1980
- Find Out What Will Occur -
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Powerful Climate Videos
by Professor Dilley - GWO
3 Releases During 2023
New Climate Update Video Coming 14 May 2024
Explains Climate Cycles and Carbon Dioxide
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1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 22 April 2024
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2024
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
El Niño Conditions are Observed - will transition to ENSO Neutral by around 01 May
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 March 2024 to 27 March 2024 (from to to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 27 March 17 April 2024 - the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red - orange and yellow colors in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - but still remains warm enough to be called an El Niño.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the Eastern Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface during late April and greatly cool the surface water during the period May through July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-Year Prediction into March 2026 purhcase here
b. NOAA - ENSO (El Niño - La Niña) Prediction - updated 22 April 2024
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean.
The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are weakening.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).*
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 22 April 2024
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
During the period from 22 February 2024 to 13 April 2024 (top to bottom panels) the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red and orange)) has become completely modified as it cooled from upwell of colder water below,
The subsurface in the Equatorial Tropical Pacific as of 13 April was void of warmer than normal water and colder than normal subsurface water now dominates the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
The upwelling of the colder subsurface water will cool the surface water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during late April with the El Nino transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions around 01 May and then continuing cooling during June into September.
Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue through late April and May - and then settle down during June as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change.
2- Year GWO Predictions
La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions click here
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
(where El Nino events typically form)
As of 17 April 2024 - warmer than normal subsurface water (see left graphic) has intensified and now stretches across the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific Ocean.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the East-Central Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface in late April and greatly cool the surface water during May into July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around 01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 22 April 2024
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 22 February 2024 to 13 April 2024 (top to bottom panels) the area of much warmer than normal subsurface water (red and orange)) has become completely modified as it cooled from upwell of colder water below,
The subsurface in the Equatorial Tropical Pacific as of 13 April was void of warmer than normal water and colder than normal subsurface water now dominates the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
The upwelling of the colder subsurface water will cool the surface water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific during late April with the El Nino transitioning to ENSO Neutral conditions around 01 May and then continuing cooling during June into September.
Unusual weather around the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will continue through late April and May - and then settle down during June as the atmospheric circulation responds to the change.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Click Image to Enlarge
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 06 March 2024 to 27 March 2024 (from to to bottom).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 27 March 17 April 2024 - the area of much warmer than normal surface water (red - orange and yellow colors in top panel) has modified and shrunk in area - but still remains warm enough to be called an El Niño.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the Eastern Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface during late April and greatly cool the surface water during the period May through July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
This was the first El Niño to form near the South America Coast near Peru since prior to 1981. Thus, weather around the world will be much different than during the El Niño events from 1982 through 2020.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Click Images to Enlarge
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
As of 17 April 2024 - warmer than normal subsurface water (see left graphic) has intensified and now stretches across the entire Equatorial Tropical Pacific Ocean.
The colder than normal subsurface water is almost reaching the surface in the East-Central Tropical Equatorial Pacific - and will begin upwelling to the surface in late April and greatly cool the surface water during May into July - the El Niño will transition to ENSO Neutral around 01 May and the surface water will continue to cool through August with La Nina conditions forming around September. The surface water will cool dramatically during this period as upwelling of colder water from below intensifies.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
-
2-Year El Niño Prediction - Accurate Look into the Future - into October 2022 more info...
-
United States 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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British Isles and Europe 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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Expert Climate Change Speaker - El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes more info...
-
TV Interview - David Dilley - Dangerous Climate Change
What the Government and Media has Not Told You !
Video link: click here
Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.
It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.
GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the
GWO Products: ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1. La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
2. Hurricane Zone Forecasts
a. 2 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
c. 1 year forecast - pick your zone "Standard Package"
3. Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)
3. Earthquake Predictions
a. Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
4 . Climate Change eBook - " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "
5. Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers