Actual - 2022 Landfall Predictions

 

8 Months in Advance (released February 2022)

 

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1.  Hurricane Ian (Florida)

 

 

Florida Zone 8 - West Coast of Florida - from

Marco Island to Just north

of Cedar Key Florida

(excluding the Florida Panhandle)

 

Predicted Hurricane and Tropical Storm Risks – by GWO

 

Year:  2022

 

 

Risk Prediction Definitions:

 

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model (GWO-CPT) assigns a risk probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.

 

The upper value is 65% to 80% and denotes a high risk that the predicted event is expected to occur.  The low end of the scale is 5% to 40% and denotes a predicted low risk the event will occur.  GWO also issues risk predictions for major hurricanes.  If a hurricane does occur in the zone that year, the upper value that it will be a major hurricane is 50% to 70% and denotes a high risk that a major hurricane event will occur.

 

The GWO-CPTM predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that specific year to the long-term average annual risk.

 

Definitions - Risk Categories:  Low, Moderate and High.

 

Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                        Category                      Probability                    Prospect

                        High Risk                     60% to 80%               will likely occur

                        Moderate Risk           40% to 55%               possible – but not likely

                        Low risk                        5% to  35%               will not occur

 

 

Major Hurricane:  If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane

                       Category                     Probability                

                       High Risk                    50% to 70%                (if a hurricane occurs)

  Moderate Risk         25% to 45%                (if a hurricane occurs)

  Low Risk                     less than 25%           (if a hurricane occurs)

 

 

Zone 8

Predictions:  Year 2022        

                                                                                  Predicted        Average Annual

                                                                                         Risk                     Risk                  

 

2022   Hurricane conditions                                             70 %   High               20 %                

            Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs            50 %    High               54 %

            Tropical Storm conditions                                   80 %    High               50 %

 

* When GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that zone.

 

Analysis and Summary

 

This zone is Coming into a Dangerous Hurricane Cycle

 

Important:  As compared to the long-term average of about 2 hurricane years out of every 10 years, during the past 44 years (since 1969) the annual frequency for a hurricane has only been 10%, or about 1 hurricane every 10-years.  This is 50% below the long-term frequency for hurricanes in this zone.  The average annual return risk for the entire 111-year period (1903-2013) shows a much higher return risk of 1 hurricane year every 5 years.

 

Tracking Cycles

The GWO-CPTM hurricane tracking model indicates this zone entered a dangerous hurricane cycle back in 2017.

 

In 2017 the Florida Peninsula experienced the first hurricane landfall (Category 4 Irma) since the active 2004 and 2005 seasons, a period of 11 quiet years. Historical periods with extended quiet periods for Florida often extend for 10 years. Thus, the quiet period ended right on schedule in 2017 with Irma making landfall on Florida’s western side (from Key West to Marco Island).  

 

GWO’s ClimatePulse Technology Model is tracking historical CllimatePulse Cycles that are similar to the 2022 year. Of importance is that Hurricane Irma made landfall in this zone 5-years ago (2017).  The tracking cycles indicate that a second hurricane typically landfalls between 3 to 5 years following the prior landfall in the cycle.  This year (2022) will be 5-years following Irma in 2017 and is on the correct ClimatePulse cycle for a hurricane this year.  Thus, this year (2022) has a high risk for a hurricane in this zone (Zone 8).

 

There are 6 ClimatePulse Analog Years that are similar to the 2022 season. Three out of the six cycles occurred on what is called ClimatePulse Suppression Cycles and were also associated with El Nino events.  The combined events caused unfavorable atmospheric conditions on those cycles and - no hurricanes made landfall in this zone, although there was a tropical storm landfall.

 

The other 3 cycles occurred in association with ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycles – and thus atmospheric conditions were favorable for landfalls in this zone.

The year 2004 saw Category 4 Major Hurricane Charley make landfall near Naples in August, and then Category 1 Frances in early September. In 1968, Category 1 Gladys made landfall north of Tampa on October 18th, and a tropical storm also made landfall in 1968. In 1950, Category 3 Hurricane Easy made landfall well north of Tampa near Cedar key in early September.

 

Prediction for 2022:

GWO expects an active season for the Florida Peninsula in 2022.

 

Due to the continuance of the warm ocean water phase, the Gulf and Caribbean will once again be warmer than normal and conducive for strong hurricane development.  The season is also occurring in association with a ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle that will provide favorable atmospheric conditions for hurricane activity in this zone.

 

This zone has a very high risk for a hurricane landfall 2022, and a high risk that it will be a Major Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  During the three historical hurricane seasons listed above, 2 of the 3 seasons produced Major category 3 or 4 hurricane landfalls in this zone. The other year produced a Category 1 Hurricane.

 

 The likely landfall locations are split 50/50 between an area north of Tampa to Cedar key, or to the south near Naples. 

 

Bottom Line:

The most likely scenario for zone 8, is for a Category 3 or 4 Hurricane to move northeast making landfall in the region from Naples to Tampa. 

 

                             

Historical ClimatePulse Analog Years Similar to the 2022 Season:

 

*In 2004      ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle

                      Moderate El Niño Year

 

Major Category 4 Hurricane Charley moved north across Western Cuba on August 13th then turned northeast making landfall near Naples.

 

Major Category 3 Hurricane Jeanne moved west-northwest making landfall with 105 mph wind halfway between Cape Canaveral and Miami on September 25th.  It then weakened to a Category 1 and to a Tropical Storm as it exited the west side of Florida near Tampa on the 26th

 

Major Category 4 Hurricane Frances moved northwest along the north side of the Bahama Islands September 1st to the 4th and then weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane as it made landfall halfway between Cape Canaveral and Miami on September 4th.  Frances continued northwest across the state diminishing to a Tropical Storm south of Orlanda and exited the sate near Tampa.

  

*In 1986   Moderate El Niño

ClimatePulse Suppression Cycle for this Prediction Zone

 

No tropical storms or hurricanes occured near this region.

 

In 1987

Category 1 Hurricane Floyd formed west of Key West and moved eastward across Key West and the Upper Keys on October 12th and exited into the Atlantic.

   

* In 1968  ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle for this Zone

                  Moderate El Niño Year

 

Tropical Storm Abby moved northeast across the western tip of Cuba and briefly intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane.  Abby weakened to a Tropical Storm prior to making landfall near Naples on June 4th and then exited Florida south of Cape Canaveral and then made a second landfall near Daytona Florida.  It then moved up the coast into eastern Georgia.

 

Tropical Depression Brenda formed in the Florida Straights and moved north making landfall in the Central Keys on June 17th and then moved north and exited the state near Daytona Beach.

 

Tropical Depression Dolly formed to the southeast of Miami on august 10th and then moved north up through Miami exiting the state near Cape Canaveral.

 

Category 1 Hurricane Gladys moved northeast across extreme Western Cuba as a Tropical Storm and intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane and made landfall halfway between Cedar Key and Tampa on October 18th with 75 mph wind. Gladys then moved northeast across the state as a Category 1 Hurricane and exited the state just above Daytona Beach on October 19th.

 

 *In 1950  ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle

                  Pre-El Niño Cycle

 

Major Category 3 Hurricane King moved north making landfall on the

southeast tip of the Florida Peninsula October 17th passing near Homestead

and just west of Miami and then weakened to a Category 1 as it moved

north-northwest weakening to a tropical storm over Jacksonville Fl on the 18th. 

King then curved northwest across Southern Georgia to the central Alabama border.

 

Hurricane Easy moved north across the Western region of Cuba and then intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane staying west of Tampa before making a sharp right turn and intensifying into a Major Category 3 Hurricane prior to landfall near Cedar Key Florida on September 5th.  Easy then moved east as a tropical storm to near Jacksonville Florida and then northwest as it weakedened further over southern Georgia.

 

*In 1933   Moderate El Niño Year

ClimatePulse Suppression Cycle for this Zone

 

A Category 1 Hurricane moved west making landfall near Ft Lauderdale on July 30th and quickly weakened to a Tropical Storm as it continued westward exiting the west side of Florida above Naples on July 31st.  Then continued west and landing near Brownsville Texas on August 5th.

 

A Major Category 4 Hurricane moved northeast landfalling between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale on September 3rd.  It weakened to a Category 1 as it moved northwest near Orlando and to a Tropical Storm prior to exiting the west side of Florida above Tampa and hugged to Coast northward up across Cedar Key to South Central Georgia.

 

In 1916   ClimatePulse Suppression Cycle for this Zone

 

No hurricane or tropical storms near this zone.

                             

           __________________________________________     

 

2.  Hurricane Nicole  -  Released in February 2022

Predicted Hurricane and Tropical Storm Risks – by GWO

 

Zone 6 - East Coast of Florida from Cape Canaveral South to Miami

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Climatology

Based on 111 years of record (1903-2013) for either hurricane conditions occurring somewhere within the zone during that year, or if no hurricane, a year with tropical storm conditions occurring somewhere within the zone.
 

During the 111-year period, there were 60 tropical cyclone years in which either hurricane or tropical storm conditions affected at least a portion of the zone (54% annual risk).  Of the 60 years, there were 21 years in which hurricane conditions occurred somewhere within the zone, with a total of 26 hurricanes due to years with multiple strikes.  Of the 26 hurricanes, 9 were major category 3 to 5 hurricanes.  Tropical storm conditions (without hurricane conditions in the zone) occurred on 39 years with a total of 51 tropical storms due to years with multiple strikes. 

 

The climatological average annual risk frequency (CAAR) is 2 hurricanes years and 3 to 4 tropical storm years during a 10-year period.  But the averages can be misleading in that some 10-year periods are quite active, and other 4 to 8-year periods are very inactive with little or no tropical cyclones within the zone. GWO’s Climate Pulse Technology Model (GWO-CPTM) identifies these cycles and incorporates them into the prediction risks.

 

Risk Prediction Definitions:

 

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model (GWO-CPT) assigns a risk probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.

 

The upper value is 65% to 80% and denotes a high risk that the predicted event is expected to occur.  The low end of the scale is 5% to 40% and denotes a predicted low risk the event will occur.  GWO also issues risk predictions for major hurricanes.  If a hurricane does occur in the zone that year, the upper value that it will be a major hurricane is 50% to 70% and denotes a high risk that a major hurricane event will occur.

 

The GWO-CPTM predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that specific year to the long-term average annual risk.

 

Definitions - Risk Categories:  Low, Moderate and High.

 

Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                        Category                      Probability                    Prospect

                        High Risk                     60% to 80%               will likely occur

                        Moderate Risk           40% to 55%               possible – but not likely

                        Low risk                        5% to  35%               will not occur

 

 

Major Hurricane:  If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane

                       Category                     Probability                

                       High Risk                    50% to 70%                (if a hurricane occurs)

    Moderate Risk         25% to 45%               (if a hurricane occurs)

   Low Risk                     less than 25%           (if a hurricane occurs)

 

 

 Zone 6 Prediction:  2022

  

          

                                                                             Prediction Risk               Climatology Risk

2022   Hurricane conditions                                   70 %   High                 19 %

            Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs   50 %   High                    8 %

            Tropical Storm conditions                          70 %   High                  54 %

 

* When GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.

 

 

Analysis and Summary

 

Close Calls the Past 4-Years – Hurricanes Nearby -  but not landfalling

A ClimatePulse Hurricane Suppression Cycle has kept hurricane conditions away from this zone since 2005, a period of 16-years. Since the mid-1800s, this zone (Miami to Cape Canaveral) typically has cycles of 13- years without a hurricane striking this region.  The longest cycle was 17-years.  Hence, with this year being year number 17 since that last hurricane struck – this zone is now at a very high risk for a hurricane landfall this year (2022).

 

Some storms did come very close to this zone in 2020, and then 2021 was very quiet for this zone.  In 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias did come close as it moved north passing just east of West Palm Beach and then intensifying into a Category 1 Hurricane just prior to landfalling in North Carolina.

 

Also in 2020 was the Major Hurricane Eta (EE-tah) that struck Nicaragua and then reformed into a Category 1 Hurricane south of Cuba.  Eta then moved northeast across Central Cuba to a position southeast of the Florida and then moved west as a tropical storm to Key West. It then turned north and briefly became a Category 1 hurricane before weakening to a tropical storm and making landfall near Cedar Key on the West Coast of Florida. Eta (EE-tah) brought tropical storm conditions to much of Florida – but again no hurricane conditions for the Miami to Cape Canaveral area.

 

The average annual return risk for hurricane conditions to occur somewhere within this zone is 19 percent; this is an average of 1 hurricane every 5 years, and it has not had a landfall in 16 years.  This zone (Miami to Cape Canaveral) typically has periods of 14-15 years without a hurricane striking this region – it is now due.

 

Prediction for 2022

 

This zone has not experienced a direct hurricane landfall since the highly active 2004 and 2005 seasons, and then followed by a quiet period of 16 years.  Historical data indicates that this zone typically has ClimatePulse Landfall Suppression Cycles for durations of 13 to as much as 16-years.  A similar 16-year hurricane drought occurred 100 years ago. None of the quiet cycles have gone beyond 16-years. Thus a hurricane is very likely for this zone in 2022.

 

ClimatePulse Tracking for (2022)

GWO’s ClimatePulse Hurricane Model is tracking 3 extremely specific cycles that have occurred since the year 1865. The first ClimatePulse cycle was in 1924.  A Major Hurricane moved north across the western tip of Cuba on October 19th and then turned east and moved across extreme south Florida (Maco Idland to Miami on October 20th and 21st as a Category 2 diminishing to Category 1 near Miami.

 

Second ClimatePulse hurricane cycle occurred in 1933. A Category 1 Hurricane moved west making landfall near Ft Lauderdale on July 30th and quickly weakened to a Tropical Storm as it continued westward exiting the west side of Florida above Naples on July 31st.  Then continued west and landing near Brownsville Texas on August 5th.

Also in 1933, a Major Category 4 Hurricane moved northeast landfalling between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale on September 3rd.  It weakened to a Category 1 as it moved northwest near Orlando and to a Tropical Storm prior to exiting the west side of Florida above Tampa and hugged to Coast northward up across Cedar Key to South Central Georgia.

 

Third ClimatePulse hurricane cycle occurred in 1950.  Major Category 3 Hurricane King moved north making landfall on the southeast tip of the Florida Peninsula October 17th passing near Homestead and just west of Miami and then weakened to a Category 1 as it moved north-northwest weakening to a tropical storm over Jacksonville on the 18th.  King then curved northwest across Southern Georgia to the central Alabama border.

 

 

Bottom Line: Prediction

GWO expects an active season for the Florida Peninsula in 2022.

 

This zone is on the cusp for a direct landfall.  Historical data indicates that this zone typically has ClimatePulse Landfall Suppression Cycles for durations of 13 to as much as 16-years.  A similar 16-year hurricane drought occurred 100 years ago. None of the quiet cycles have gone beyond 16-years.  It has been 16 years since the last hurricane in 2005, thus this year (2022) has a very high risk for a hurricane landfall.

 

Analog Years listed below are mixed between Category 1 to Category 4 hurricanes making landfall.  The primary cycles listed above indicated Hurricanes landfalling either on the South to Southeast tip of the Florida Peninsula or near Miami-West Palm Beach area.  These hurricanes then traveled more northwest up through the state.

 

GWO’s tracking and outlook webinars should be followed closely during the 2021 season – only a few miles can mean the difference between hurricane conditions versus tropical storm conditions. 

 

The most favorable time for a hurricane is anytime during September into October.

 

 

Historical ClimatePulse Analog Years Similar to the 2022 Season:

 

*In 2004     ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle

           Moderate El Niño Year

 

Major Category 4 Hurricane Charley moved north across Western Cuba on August 13th then turned northeast making landfall near Naples.

 

Major Category 3 Hurricane Jeanne moved west-northwest making landfall with 105 mph wind halfway between Cape Canaveral and Miami on September 25th.  It then weakened to a Category 1 and to a Tropical Storm as it exited the west side of Florida near Tampa on the 26th

 

Major Category 4 Hurricane Frances moved northwest along the north side of the Bahama Islands September 1st to the 4th and then weakened to a Category 2 Hurricane as it made landfall halfway between Cape Canaveral and Miami on September 4th.  Frances continued northwest across the state diminishing to a Tropical Storm south of Orlanda and exited the sate near Tampa.

 

*In 1986   Moderate El Niño

ClimatePulse Suppression Cycle for this Prediction Zone

 

No tropical storms or hurricanes occurred near this region.

 

In 1987

Category 1 Hurricane Floyd formed west of Key West and moved eastward across Key West and the Upper Keys on October 12th and exited into the Atlantic.

  

*In 1968    ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle for this Zone

                    Moderate El Niño Year

 

Tropical Storm Abby moved northeast across the western tip of Cuba and briefly intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane.  Abby weakened to a Tropical Storm prior to making landfall near Naples on June 4th and then exited Florida south of Cape Canaveral and then made a second landfall near Daytona Florida.  It then moved up the coast into eastern Georgia.

 

Tropical Depression Brenda formed in the Florida Straights and moved north making landfall in the Central Keys on June 17th and then moved north and exited the state near Daytona Beach.

 

Tropical Depression Dolly formed to the southeast of Miami on august 10th and then moved north up through Miami exiting the state near Cape Canaveral.

 

Category 1 Hurricane Gladys moved northeast across extreme Western Cuba as a Tropical Storm and intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane and made landfall halfway between Cedar Key and Tampa on October 18th with 75 mph wind. Gladys then moved northeast across the state as a Category 1 Hurricane and exited the state just above Daytona Beach on October 19th.

 

 *In 1950  ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle

                   Pre-El Niño Cycle

 

 Major Category 3 Hurricane King moved north making landfall on the

southeast tip of the Florida Peninsula October 17th passing near Homestead

and just west of Miami and then weakened to a Category 1 as it moved

north-northwest weakening to a tropical storm over Jacksonville Fl on the 18th. 

King then curved northwest across Southern Georgia to the central Alabama border.

 

Hurricane Easy moved north across the Western region of Cuba and then intensified into a Category 1 Hurricane staying west of Tampa before making a sharp right turn and intensifying into a Major Category 3 Hurricane prior to landfall near Cedar Key Florida on September 5th.  Easy then moved east as a tropical storm to near Jacksonville Florida and then northwest as it weakedened further over southern Georgia.

 

*In 1933  Moderate El Niño Year

        ClimatePulse Enhancement Cycle 

 

A Category 1 Hurricane moved west making landfall near Ft Lauderdale on July 30th and quickly weakened to a Tropical Storm as it continued westward exiting the west side of Florida above Naples on July 31st.  Then continued west and landing near Brownsville Texas on August 5th.

 

A Major Category 4 Hurricane moved northeast landfalling between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale on September 3rd.  It weakened to a Category 1 as it moved northwest near Orlando and to a Tropical Storm prior to exiting the west side of Florida above Tampa and hugged to Coast northward up across Cedar Key to South Central Georgia.

 

In 1915    ClimatePulse Suppression Cycle for this Zone

 

A Category 1 Hurricane formed to the southeast of Cape Canaveral and moved northwest making landfall on Cape Canaveral August 1st – then turned north as a Tropical Storm and moved into Eastern Georgia.

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2020 Hot-Spot Landfall Predictions  

     

Red Circles are the Predicted landfall Hot Spots

Red Dots = hurricane landfalls

Yellow Dots = Tropical Storms Activity