Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Tropical Cyclone Risk Probability Predictions
East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States
Issued - January 1, 2016
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Ocala, Florida 34480 USA
Actual Prediction for Zone 5
2016 Hurricane Season Predictions
Climate Pulse Technology Model by GWO
Risk Prediction Definitions:
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model assigns a risk probability
expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.
Definitions: Risk Prediction
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.
Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk: Low, Moderate and High.
Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:
Category Probability Prospect
High Risk 60% to 80% likely to occur
Moderate Risk 40% to 55% possible – but not likely
Low risk 5% to 35% not expected
Major Hurricane Risk:
If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane
High Risk 50% to 70% (if a hurricane occurs)
Moderate Risk 25% to 45% (if a hurricane occurs)
Low Risk less than 25% (if a hurricane occurs)
In the Predictions Below –
The predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that
specific year to the long-term average annual risk.
Prediction: 2016 Hurricane Season - Zone 5
Predicted Hurricane and Tropical Storm Risks – by GWO
Zone 5 - Georgia Coast South to Daytona Beach, Florida
Predicted Risk Event likelihood
2016 Hurricane conditions 60 % High Risk expected to occur
Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs 35 % Moderate
Tropical Storm conditions 75 % High Risk expected to occur
*This zone should be monitored very closely this season
* Note: when GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 35% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.
Analysis and Summary
Aside from the occurrence of tropical storm Andrea during the 2013 season, this particular zone has been in a quiet hurricane and tropical storm cycle since the active 2004 and 2005 seasons. But this is about to change. Analysis of the GWO Climate Pulse Technology Model (GWO-CPTM) indicates this zone is entering a very active tropical cyclone cycle that has occurred 7 times during the past 120 years.
The likelihood for a hurricane landfall or hurricane conditions increases dramatically during the 2016 season. GWO's Climate Pulse Model is tracking 4 analog years similar to 2016. It should be emphasized that a hurricane will skirt very close to the region or hit the region. The 2016 should also be monitored very closely - a direct hit could occur.
The CPTM model is tracking 4 analog years similar to the cycle. This zone is on the cusp for entering a very active hurricane and tropical storm cycle. It should be emphasized that a hurricane will skirt very close to the region this year, and thus 2016 should be monitored very closely for fringe hurricane conditions, with tropical storm conditions occuring.
There is also the potential for multiple strikes in the same year, such as a nearby hurricane and also 1 or more tropical storms. Active hurricane cycles in neighboring zones are expected to cause tropical storm or hurricane landfalls just to the south and west of this zone. The impact for this zone is that fringe effects arealso likely to occur from the neighboring zones as these tropical storms or hurricanes move near or across this zone as well. This puts the zone in a high risk for tropical storm and hurricane conditions. The most favorable period for a hurricane in this area is early to mid September.
Analog Years Similar to 2016 and 2017:
In 1999 Category 1 Hurricane Irene moved northeast up the Keys exiting the Florida Peninsula north of Miami, then skirted to the east of Cape Canaveral. Tropical storm conditions were likely experienced along some coastal portions of this zone.
In 1945 a major Category 4 hurricane made landfall in mid-September on the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula, then continued moving northeast as a category 1 across Orlando to Jacksonville.
In 1928 A category 1 hurricane made landfall just south of Cape Canaveral in early August, then moved northwest across the state as a tropical storm. Also in 1928 a Major Category 4 hurricane made landfall between Miami and Cape Canaveral in mid September and then moved northwest across the Orlando area maintaining hurricane strength.
In 1964 Major Hurricane Category 3 Dora made landfall near Jacksonville Florida in mid September, then moved due west across extreme north Florida as a Category 1 hurricane.
Bottom Line; during the next 2 years (2016 through 2017), there is a high risk for a major impact storm within this zone. Analysis of the GWO-CPTM model predicts at least 1 year with a hurricane conditions is likely, and the potential for up to 2 hurricanes or strong tropical storms influencing this zone. The historical average annual risk for a hurricane is only 15%, but this risk will rise to a high 65% risk during the 2016 through 2017 period. Either year is at risk for a hurricane, with 2017 having the highest risk. The most favorable period for a hurricane in this area is early to mid September.
There is also the potential for multiple strikes in the same year, such as a hurricane and also 1 or more tropical storms. Active hurricane cycles in neighboring zones are expected to cause tropical storm or hurricane landfalls just to the south and southwest and north of this zone. The impact for this zone is that fringe effects are likely to occur from the neighboring zones as these tropical storms or hurricanes move near or across this zone as well. This puts the zone in a high risk for tropical storm activity during the entire 3-year period from 2016 through 2018.
Disclaimer for Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Risk Probabilities for the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States for 2014*
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE TROPICALCYCLONE, TROPICAL STORM, AND HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.
IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, AND EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.
OFFICIAL SOURCES (US GOVERNMENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - NHC) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES. THE LINK TO THE NHC IS http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
*Standard type of disclaimer for the meteorological services industry