Sea Level Rise: Coastal United States next 100 Years
David Dilley – Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
Most sea level predictions widely distributed by government agencies and universities paint an alarming picture for coastal areas during the next 80 years. If sea levels actually rise as predicted by the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the USGCRP National Climate Assessment, or Robert DeConto Department of Geosciences University of Massachusetts, - coastal areas of the United States and especially low lying areas and Ports could be catastrophically susceptible to the projected rises during the next 80 years.
In 2014 the USGCRP National Climate Assessment projected that by the year 2100, the average sea level rise during the next 85 years will be between one and four feet (300mm-1200mm) since the date of the 2014 assessment. They go on to say that current rates of sea level rise have roughly doubled since the pre 1992 rates of sea level rise during the 20th century.
In a recent article in the Journal Nature, Robert M. Deconto et al. used a newly improved numerical ice-sheet model calibrated to Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates to develop projections of Antarctica's evolution over time. They found that Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, and global mean sea level has been 6–9 meters higher during the prior epic of the last interglacial period that occurred 130,000 to 115,000 years ago. They also state that if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a meter (3.4 feet) of sea-level rise by 2100 - and more than 15 meters (51 feet) by 2500.
If the above statements hold true - there would be catastrophic consequences for many coastal regions worldwide. But, is this really going to occur? The rest of this report will examine the big picture concerning climate change and sea level rise – and offer a more logical prediction of what will most likely occur during the next 200 years.
Natural Climate Cycles and Sea Level Rises - The Cause
Earth’s long-term “natural” climate cycles alternate
from very warm Inter-glacial cycles to very cold glacial
periods on a periodicity of about every 116,000 years
(see Figure 1). It takes about 60,000 years to go from
the coldest period of a glacial cycle to the peak of the
warm inter-glacial warm period, then another
60,000 years to go from the warm cycle to the coldest
portion of the glacial cycle.
When earth is in a glacial period, the associated much
colder ocean water absorbs atmospheric carbon
dioxide – thus lowering carbon dioxide levels
dramatically. And during this very cold period lasting
up to 80,000 years, sea levels drop dramatically due to
contraction of the colder water, increases in glaciers,
sea ice and the permanent year around ice and snow
covering much of the land areas above 40 to 50 degrees
north and south latitude.
Earth then entered a glacial period about 120,000 years
ago, and during the ensuing 80,000 years, sea levels
dropped approximately 130 meters (437 feet). As seen
in Figure 2, earth cycled out of the last glacial period
15 to 20 thousand years ago, and ocean levels began to
rise as sea and land ice/snow began to decrease.
Post glacial sea levels rose rapidly during the post glacial
period during the period from 6 thousand years ago
to 8 thousand years ago, with an average annual rise
of about 21.6 meters per 100 years. These figures
become minuscule when compared to the 10 to 20
center meter rise projected by the IPCC during the next
Bottom line: sea levels rose only 20 feet during the
past 8,000 years – but an astounding 400 feet during
the preceding 8 thousand year period.
Natural Short-Term Sea Level Rises
As discussed above, the 8,000 year period leading up
to the peak of the inter-glacial periods are typically
associated with sea level rises on the order of
approximately 400 feet. This period is then followed
by a much smaller gradual rise until temperatures
begin cooling as earth approaches the next glacial
As seen in Figure 1, earth reached the peak of the
current interglacial warm period about 7 thousand
years ago, and earth is now trending toward the next
glacial period, but still warm enough to cause gradual
sea level rises, especially during smaller and much
briefer natural warming cycles embedded within the
large 116 thousand year warming cycle.
These brief alternating global warming and cooling
cycles occur about every 230 years (Figure 3).
The alternating cooling cycles typically slow sea level
rise, whereas the warming cycles typically produce
accelerated sea level rise.
However some cycles are just too cool to allow sea
level rise. A perfect example is the period from 1400 AD
to 1850 AD that was much colder than normal, even
with a global warming cycle during the period. This
period has been called the “Little Ice” age due to a
large increase in glaciers and polar ice during the
period. This very cool period also suppressed sea
level rise during the period, with little or no rise
recorded from 1700 to almost 1840 (see Figure 4).
Then after the Little Ice Age ended around 1850,
sealevel rise (see figure 4) began accelerating with
warming associated with the next natural global
warming cyclethat began as scheduled (230 year cycles).
It is also important to note the short-term rises and/or
no rise periods from 1850 to present. As seen in Figures 3
and 5, a global warming cycle typically has two twin
temperature peaks lasting 10 to as much as 20 years.
It is also important to note the short-term rises and/or
no rise periods from 1850 to present. As seen in Figures
3 and 5, a global warming cycle typically has two twin
temperature peaks lasting 10 to as much as 20 years.
One would expect oceans to warm during these warm
peaks, but with a lag time due to the density of the
water. And it should be noted that water expands
as it warms, contracts as it cools. In Figure 5 we can
see about a 20 year accelerated increase in sea level
from 1860 to 1880 that follows the natural 10 year
warm period around 1850.
A second accelerated rise occurs from about 1930
through 1945 following the natural global warming
10-year peak in the 1930s. Then a third accelerated rise
from 1997 through 2015 associated with the second
twin warm peak of the global warming cycle. Most of the
year situated between these cycles showed little or no
sea level rise, or in some cases a small decrease.
Will Sea Level Rise Become Catastrophic – or - Will Sea Level Fall?
Sea level rise is strongly dependent on short
and long-term climate cycles, such as the
116,000 year inter-glacial and glacial cycles,
the approximate 1,500 and 230 year global
warming and cooling cycles, the shorter twin
warm peak cycles associated with the 230
year warming and cooling cycles, and the
contraction or expansion of the water due
to heating or cooling.
The 116,000 year inter-glacial warm cycle
peaked about 7,000 years ago as noted by
50 percent less ice in the Arctic at that time,
and then progressively cooler warming cycles
since then (figure 6). It was much warmer 7 thousand and 1 thousand years ago than
it is today. Because the ocean temperatures lag behind the cooling trend, a continued trend in slow sea level rise could continue for another thousand years – although it will become less and less as time progresses, or it may stabilize and halt entirely within the next few years as the next 230 year global cooling cycle takes hold and earth continues to progress toward the next ice age.
In 2014 the USGCRP National Climate Assessment projected that by the year 2100, the average sea level rise during the next 85 years will be between one and four feet (300mm-1200mm). And a new report projects that global mean sea level rise for 2081-2100 will likely be in the range of 10.2 to 32 inches, depending on greenhouse gas emissions. However, the report notes, as other studies have found, that local amounts of sea level rise could be much higher in some coastal areas.
Sea Level Prediction by David Dilley - Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
As discussed earlier, the warm peak of the inter-glacial cycle occurred about 7 thousand years ago, with progressively cooler 1,500 year warming cycles since then as earth trends toward the next long-term glacial period. Because the density and depth of the oceans around the world, changes in ocean temperatures lag behind a long-term inter-glacial cooling or warming trend by up to a few thousand years. This is partly due to the smaller 230 year cooling and warming cycles embedded within the long-term cycles.
Thus, until earth trends further toward the next glacial period, a continued trend in slow sea level rise could continue for another thousand years – although rises will become less and less as time progresses, or it may even stabilize and halt entirely within the next few years as the next 230 year global cooling cycle takes hold and earth continues to progress toward the next ice age.
The short-term 230 year Natural Climate
Pulse 230 global warming and cooling
cycles will be the most important aspect
during the next 150 to 200 years. These
cycles are controlled by the earth-moon-sun
gravitational cycles and the solar cycles,
which in-turn in combination with the
warming and cooling - control fluctuations
in sea level. As seen in Figure 7, there have
been 6 warming cycles during the past
1,200 years and the beginning and ending
of each cycle occur like clockwork about
every 220 to 230 years. The last warm cycle
ended around 1780 and the year 2019 is
approximately 230 years from this date.
Just as important as the 230 year Natural
Climate Pulse is the Solar Activity Cycles.
As seen in Figure 8, solar activity has
entered a Maunder Minimum that should
continue for the next 50 to 90 years.
Like the Climate Pulse Cycles, these cycles
also correlate with the approximate
230 year warming and cooling cycles.
Prediction and Projection: Earth is now
entering a Climate Pulse Global Cooling
Cycle which will last between 100 to 200
years, and will this greatly stabilize or
even reduce sea level rise. The coldest
years of the upcoming Natural Climate
Pulse cooling cycle will be from the year
2020 through 2220, and especially from 2025 through 2060 – a period that will likely see epic cold temperatures not seen since the early 1800s. The Arctic and Antarctic entered the cooling cycle around the year 2013 and the full effects will become noticeable on or after the year 2019.
The Arctic and Antarctic will realize dramatic ice restoration during this period, and ocean water will contract during this period due to the much colder temperatures and cooling of the oceans. GWO predicts a complete stabilizing of the sea level rise early in this period and likely very little or no sea level rise during the period from 2020 through 2200.
Conclusion: Misleading Science:
Most sea level predictions that are widely distributed by government agencies and universities paint an alarming picture for coastal areas during the next 80 years and beyond. If sea levels actually rise as predicted by the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), coastal areas of the United States and especially low lying areas and Ports would be very susceptible to the projected rises.
But extreme caution and doubt should be exercised with these predictions. The government grant system offers research grants to universities for the purpose of researching theories that may or may not be true. Unfortunately this process has not been used wisely used during the past 20 years, and sometimes abused by the university research programs.
Much of this begins with the lobbyists and bureaucrats in Washington D.C. and the United Nations. The lobbyists are infusing money into the university grant systems worldwide in order to promote money making agendas. If the universities and governments can be convinced that Climate Change has catastrophic consequences – special interest agendas can easily be put in place. But to do so, scare tactics are used by agencies to further these agendas. Unfortunately the university grant system has become the puppet to bolster the agendas on Climate Change issues. By using scare tactics fanned from poor science, ideas and facts can easily be misconstrued.
Fanning the fire is unfortunately done in several ways. After the lobbyists and special interest groups set the ground work to promote their special interest climate agendas, it then it then spill over to the grant system. Once the grants are put forth, catastrophic but often scientifically unfounded results spew from the universities to scientific journals. Remember - University research programs survive by receiving grants, and thrive even more if their findings show possible catastrophic consequences. Now the fire is lite and the fire is then fanned as the press grabs onto headline stories indicating catastrophic climate change caused by humans. The subsequent headlines by the press further fans the fire by convincing the government to issue more climate change grants. Now the universities are happy as grant money flows in, and young scientists must toe the line and continue to publish substandard research and findings – or they may not reach tenure. This is documented pressure by research units at universities.
Nature Volume 531 issue 7596 Robert M. DeConto and Davie Pollard, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003, USA
United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the USGCRP National Climate Assessment
Natural Climate Pulse; David Dilley, CEO Global Weather Oscillations. Peer reviewed and published 2009, updated 2012; www.globalweatheroscillations.com
Figure 1 – shows 5 alternating inter-glacial and glacial cycles during the past 450,000 years.
Figure 2 – shows a rise in sea levels during the period 8 to 16 thousand years ago. The peak of the Inter-Glacial warm period occurred about 7 thousand years ago when there was 50 percent less ice in the Artic than today.
Figure 3 – shows the approximate 230 year recurring global warming cycles. They typically have twin warm peaks followed by 100 years of cooling and a leveling off of sea level rise.
Figure 4 – shows no increase in sea level rise during the later stage of the Little Ice Age from 1700 to 1840, then a more rapid increase during the 1900 to 2018 natural global warming cycle. Courtesy Jevrejeva et al. (2008). Geophysics Letter 35.
Figure 5 – shows the typical 72-year twin temperature peaks associated with a 230 year Natural Global Warming Cycles.
Figure 6 – shows that 7,000 years ago it was much warmer than today and 50 percent less ice in the Arctic. Each was cycle has become progressively cooler.
Figure 7 – shows the typical 72-year twin temperature peaks associated with a 230 year Natural Global Warming Cycles
Figure 8 – shows the solar cycles since 1749 and the prediction is for a solar minimum to cause a cooling period about 200 years.