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               GlobalWeatherCycles.com    GlobalWetherOscillations.com      Tampa Florida - Ocala Florida USA

 

Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)

 

Tropical Cyclone Risk Probability Predictions

East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States

 

For

  2011  

 

Issued - January 1, 2011

 

 

 

This Product is For Purchaser’s Internal Use Only

Distribution is strictly forbidden by GWO

 

 

 

Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)

4423 SE 14th Street

Ocala, Florida 34480 USA

 

Email: dilley@GlobalWeatherOscillations.com

www.GlobalWeatherOscillations.com

www.GlobalWeatherCycles.com

 

 

                           2011 Hurricane Season Prediction

                                 Climate Pulse Technology Model by GWO  

 

 

Risk Prediction Definitions:

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model assigns a risk probability

expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.

 

 

Definitions:  Risk Prediction

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.

 

                    Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk:    Low,  Moderate and High.

 

                                                            Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:

                                       Category                  Probability                             Prospect

                                         High Risk                 60% to 80%                       likely to occur

                                      Moderate Risk        40% to 55%                      possible – but not likely

                                      Low risk                    5% to 35%                        not expected

 

                                                                            Major Hurricane Risk: 

                                                 If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane

                                           Category                 Probability              

                                     High Risk                 50% to 70%             (if a hurricane occurs)

                                     Moderate Risk       25% to 45%             (if a hurricane occurs)

                                     Low Risk                 less than 25%         (if a hurricane occurs)

 

In the Predictions Below –

The predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that

specific year to the long-term average annual risk.

 

 

Prediction:   For 2011

 

Zone 2

New York City  Southward  - New Jersey - Delaware - Maryland - to the Chesapeak Bay

  

                                                                                                Predicted              Event Expected           Average Annual

                                                                                                     Risk                                                                     Risk                  

2011  Hurricane conditions                                            60 %     High               expected  to occur           8 %

           Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs          45 %     High               not expected                     3 %

           Tropical Storm conditions                                   70 %     High               expected to occur          28 %

 

                                                                      Note:  Hurricane Irene hugged the Deleware and New Jersey Coast

                                                                                  Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey in 2012

    

 * Note: when GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.

 

 

Analysis and Summary

 

This zone is entering one of the strongest and most active Climate Pulse hurricane cycles for the northeast region in the past 50 to 75 years.  

 

Analysis of the GWO Climate Pulse Technology Model (GWO-CPTM) indicates that this zone has a high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions in 2011.  Storm track for 2011 is expected to bring hurricanes traveling from south to north to near Cape Hatteras and then likely continuing up the coast toward Long Island, with the area experiencing either a strong  tropical storm or hurricane in 2011. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                   

 

 

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