GWO Cited by Media - The Best 2017 Hurricane Prediction by Any Major Organization
Review of the 2017 Hurricane Season
Ocala Star Banner – November 30 2017
In Florida, 2017 was a hurricane year to remember
By Joe Callahan
How did experts fare?
Nearly every weather agency predicted a normal hurricane season, stating that an emerging El Nino would help create upper level wind shear that would hinder hurricane development.
Instead, La Nina emerged over the summer and eliminated the wind shear. Coupled with warmer Atlantic waters, it was the perfect setting for a hyperactive hurricane season. Colorado State researchers, who have been predicting hurricane activity for the past 34 years, predicted 11 or 12 named storms, four to six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. Other major agencies offered similar forecasts.
Only Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), an Ocala-based hurricane season prediction company, had an accurate reading. GWO predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. “We also predicted six landfalls and there were six,” said David Dilley, who owns and operates GWO.
Dilley developed a computer model concept, which he touts as a one-of-a-kind long-range forecasting tool. It relies on weather cycles. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration uses several short-term weather cycle-type oscillation models — as well as La Nina or El Nino influences — to forecast six months to a year into the future. NOAA does not use weather cycle data to predict hurricanes four years out.
Dilley, a former NOAA meteorologist who worked in Boston for two decades, says his models can predict hurricane activity years ahead. He sells his zone forecasts to clients, such as insurance agencies.
Dilley projects the activity in 11 Atlantic and Gulf Coast zones. He has found that each zone has varying weather cycles — up to about 50 years each. And each zone’s cycle has its own smaller weather cycle. Once all of the cycles within cycles are discovered, a pattern for each zone emerges.
After analyzing the data, Dilley’s computer program then projects hurricane and tropical storm probabilities. In 2017, Dilley, 72, had the only perfect prediction.
“The difference is our Climate Pulse Technology, which I am patenting,” he said.
Dilley said his models show that hyperactive hurricane activity will continue, or even worsen, for the next five years or so. He said 2018 is poised to be the strongest hurricane season in 70 years.
“That could continue for the next five, six, seven years,” Dilley said. Florida will be under the gun every year. Joe Callahan can be reached at 867-4113 or at joe.callahan@starbanner. com. Follow him on Twitter @JoeOcalaNews.