Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Tropical Cyclone Risk Probability Predictions
East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States
Issued - January 1, 2016
This Product is For Purchaser’s Internal Use Only
Distribution is strictly forbidden by GWO
Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO)
Ocala, Florida 34480 USA
- Actual Prediction for this Zone - 2016 Hurricane Season -
2016 Hurricane Season Predictions
Climate Pulse Technology Model by GWO
Risk Prediction Definitions:
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) “Climate Pulse Technology” Model assigns a risk probability
expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur.
Definitions: Risk Prediction
Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a risk category and probability expressed in percent for the likelihood that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.
Risk percent ranges define three categories of risk: Low, Moderate and High.
Hurricanes - Tropical Storms:
Category Probability Prospect
High Risk 60% to 80% likely to occur
Moderate Risk 40% to 55% possible – but not likely
Low risk 5% to 35% not expected
Major Hurricane Risk:
If a hurricane actually occurs – risk it will be a major hurricane
High Risk 50% to 70% (if a hurricane occurs)
Moderate Risk 25% to 45% (if a hurricane occurs)
Low Risk less than 25% (if a hurricane occurs)
In the Predictions Below –
The predicted risk is compared to the CAAR (average - annual return risk) to the right of the prediction in the prediction table. This provides a reference point for the user to quickly compare the prediction risk for that
specific year to the long-term average annual risk.
Zone 9 - Upper Gulf Coast States -
Florida Panhandle to near central Louisiana coast
Predicted Risk Event likelihood
2016 Hurricane conditions 70 % High Risk expected to occur
Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs 45 % Moderate Risk possible
Tropical Storm conditions 70 % High Risk expected to occur
*This zone should be monitored very closely this season
* Note: when GWO-CPT model predicts a zone has at least a 20% risk for a major Category 3-5 hurricane landfall, it is shown in the indicated forecast and/or outlook period(s) for that particular zone.
Analysis and Summary
The annual return risk (ASR) for hurricanes for this zone is 37%, which means a hurricane on the average occurs about once every 3 to 4 years.
Hurricane Isaac (weak category 1) came onshore in this zone in 2012, and is the only hurricane to strike this zone during the 10-year period from 2006 through 2015.
Climatology indicates this zone is very overdue for another hurricane, and the GWO-CPTM model is tracking an active cycle beginning in 2016.
GWO is tracking 10 Climate Pulse Cycles that have occurred since 1870 - all but one produced a hurricane on their respective cycle year. Only one hurricane was a major Category 3, five were Category 2 hurricanes, and three were Category 1 hurricanes. Thus, there is a high risk for a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. The most prone time period for a hurricane landfall is during the month of September, although they can occur as early as late-July or as late as late-October. The most prone time for a Category 2 or greater is in September and October.
Analog Years most similar to the 2016 season are:
In 1998 Category 2 Hurricane Earl moved from southeast to northwest across the outer Keys of Florida making landfall in Mississippi on October 29th. Also in 1998, weak Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall in eastern Louisiana in mid-September.
In 1971 Category 2 Hurricane Edith moved northeast making landfall in central Louisiana in mid-September.
In 1971 Category 2 Hurricane Edith moved from southwest to northeast making landfall in central Louisiana in mid-September.
In 1936 a Category 2 Hurricane moved northwest making landfall late in July on the western Panhandle of Florida and then continued north into Alabama. A weak Tropical Storm made landfall in eastern Louisiana in late July.
In 1901 a Category 1 Hurricane moved west then due north making landfall in extreme eastern Louisiana and the Mississippi-Alabama border in mid-August.
Disclaimer for Tropical Cyclone, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Risk Probabilities for the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States for 2014*
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY Global Weather Oscillations, Inc. (GWO), GWO MAKES NO EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR INTENDED USE OR OF MERCHANTABILITY (WHICH ARE DISCLAIMED). GWO ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE USE BY YOU OR YOUR EMPLOYEES OR CLIENTS OF THE TROPICALCYCLONE, TROPICAL STORM, AND HURRICANE RISK PROBABILITIES. GWO SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY OR DAMAGE RESULTING FROM USING THE RISK PROBABILITIES OR RELATED INFORMATION.
IN NO EVENT SHALL GWO BE LIABLE FOR SPECIAL, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, AND EXEMPLARY OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES OR LOST PROFITS OR DAMAGES FROM LOSS OF USE OR DATA OR OTHER CAUSE OF ACTION RELATING TO THE PERFORMANCE OR NON-PERFORMANCE OF GWO. ANY ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN BY THE USER OF THE GWO PROBABILITY RISKS IS THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE USER.
OFFICIAL SOURCES (US GOVERNMENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - NHC) SHOULD BE CONSIIDERED BEFORE ANY PLANS ARE MADE REGARDING IN-PROGRESS TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES. THE LINK TO THE NHC IS http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
*Standard type of disclaimer for the meteorological services industry